Christopher Smith, co-founder and CEO of Quantus Network, indicated in a recent interview with Cointelegraph that the first quantum attack on the cryptocurrency sector could go unnoticed, potentially being attributed to a standard key leakage.
According to Smith, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically deduce a private key from publicly available information already on the blockchain. This would allow an attacker to transfer assets without needing to compromise a wallet, device, or the internal systems of an exchange.
This scenario complicates the identification of "Q-Day"—the moment when quantum computers can breach standard public-key cryptography. If a well-protected organization is targeted, the only indication might be the absence of traditional intrusion signs.
Smith and Blockchain Capital security researcher Sean Chitham do not believe that the first targets will be the dormant bitcoins of Satoshi Nakamoto, valued at around $65 billion at the time of publication. Instead, Smith suggested that attackers would likely focus on military systems, state secrets, or administrative keys within the crypto industry, citing Tether's USDT issuance key as an example. Chitham added that exchange hot wallets are a more probable target, as such theft would attract less scrutiny than a transfer of Satoshi's coins.
In March, Google expedited its post-quantum migration plans, setting a target deadline of 2029 after a breakthrough using AI reduced the estimated computational resources needed to attack elliptic curve cryptography.
Experts have differing opinions on timelines. Smith assessed the likelihood of such a scenario occurring by 2028 at 50%. Roy Blackstone, head of NGRAVE, linked the rising risks to the concurrent advancements in AI and quantum technologies. Chitham suggested that the early 2030s are nearly inevitable, while Michael Coats, director of information security at Solana Foundation, refrained from specifying dates, noting that precise predictions are impossible.
It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be the first to face practical threats from quantum computing, according to Quantum Xchange CEO Eddie Zervigo.