Not long ago, quantum computing seemed like a distant technology—too complex and mysterious, almost like something out of science fiction. However, in 2025, everything changed: the UN declared it the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. Consulting firm McKinsey, in its Quantum Technology Monitor report, noted a paradigm shift: the industry is moving from development to commercial deployment.
This is relevant to ForkLog readers for two reasons. First, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break the cryptography of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most blockchains (and data can be intercepted now for later decryption). Second, an investment narrative has emerged around this sector—stocks, ETFs, "quantum" tokens, and pump cycles—making it increasingly difficult to distinguish real progress from hype.
The new section "Quantum & After" will feature a series of brief analyses, tackling one question at a time. We will explain where the investment bubble lies, how quantum computers threaten private keys, how blockchains are protected with new cryptography, and who is building an "unhackable" quantum internet.
Question #1: Can You Profit from Quantum Technologies?
Short Answer
Yes, but currently it's more of a bet on the narrative than on profit. Stocks of companies specializing in quantum technologies are traded on exchanges, dedicated ETFs are being launched, and "quantum" tokens are appearing in the crypto industry. However, the market capitalization of these players is based on expectations rather than revenue. It is possible to make money, but it's equally possible to lose it if one confuses technological progress with market hype.
Why Is This the Case?
The market has formed a "big four" of specialized players, fully focused on developing quantum computers and technologies:
- IonQ (IONQ);
- D-Wave Quantum (QBTS);
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI);
- Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT).
Alongside them are tech giants with dedicated divisions: IBM, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia. They present a fundamentally different risk profile: for these corporations, quantum developments are just one of many directions.
Additionally, investors have access to ready-made funds—ETFs. Riding the quantum rally, the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while the European iShares Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QANT) showed similar, albeit more restrained, dynamics. This growth is artificially fueled, as the market is volatile and speculative, with investors often reacting to news. Therefore, a decline can be just as swift.
The overall market picture explains the excitement. McKinsey estimates the potential economic impact of quantum computing at $1.3–2.7 trillion by 2035, with total sector revenue reaching up to $97 billion, of which up to $72 billion will come from computing. By 2025, the revenue of sector companies had already exceeded $1 billion.
Source: McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor 2026.However, there is a sobering benchmark: UBS analysts predict that true quantum supremacy in solving practical problems will only be achieved closer to the end of the 2030s. In other words, there is a gap of about a decade and a half between today's market capitalization and actual profits.
A separate topic is the crypto industry. Under the label "quantum," two completely different classes of projects coexist here.
The first class consists of tokens from real post-quantum protocols. These are platforms that are genuinely building blockchains resistant to quantum attacks based on new cryptography. A veteran in this sector is Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL), which originally uses hash signatures (XMSS) instead of the vulnerable ECDSA. This category also includes QANplatform (QANX) with its claimed quantum-resistant architecture, Cellframe (CELL) with post-quantum encryption "out of the box," and a newer wave including Quranium, Naoris Protocol, and Abelian.
Important Note: Having a ticker does not mean that the technology has undergone stress testing. It remains a venture bet, albeit with real engineering behind it.
The second class is the narrative. These tokens exploit the term "quantum" as a marketing trigger and come alive with every sensational headline about qubits: from old meme tokens to fresh one-day projects launched under newsworthy events. They lack code, partnerships, or a roadmap. The classic pattern is that the price skyrockets on news of another quantum chip from Google or IBM and then deflates just as quickly.
To differentiate between these classes, consider three questions:
- Does the project have an open repository and a functioning network, not just a website?
- Does it refer to specific standards (e.g., NIST algorithms) rather than vague "quantum protection"?
- Who is behind it—a team with a public history or anonymous individuals?
When a project sells a word rather than a product, the buyer receives a narrative, not technology.
What This Means for Readers and the Industry
Historical parallels are evident: the dot-com boom of the late 1990s and the AI rally of the mid-2020s. The internet changed the world, yet Pets.com went bankrupt. With quantum technologies, a similar scenario is likely to unfold: the industry will survive, but not every startup today will reach actual profitability.
ForkLog Q-check: Quantum Investments
Is there revenue?Partially: the sector has surpassed $1 billion.
Prototype or product?Both: cloud access is already being sold, but there is no "killer" application yet.
Roadmap or press release?Leaders and Big Tech have roadmaps; for tokens, the range varies widely from real code to empty announcements.
Who is paying?Currently, venture capital and government.
What can be verified now?Financial reports of public companies.
What’s Next?
The main driver of the new reality for the crypto industry is the threat: a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can break the cryptography that underpins blockchains. It is around the race for protection against this threat that significant money is circulating. We will discuss the implementation of post-quantum encryption standards in the next issue.