QCP Capital believes that the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not guarantee the lifting of supply restrictions or a decrease in inflationary pressure from rising oil prices.
QCP Market Colour — April 8, 2026
— QCP (@QCPgroup) April 8, 2026
1/ BTC moved back above $71k after a conditional US–Iran ceasefire tied to reopening Hormuz. Risk reacted as expected, equities up, oil back into the low-$90s as immediate supply risk was repriced.
The temporary ceasefire conditioned on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rise in risk assets and a drop in oil prices to $90. However, just hours before the ceasefire agreement, Tehran struck a petrochemical facility in Saudi Arabia.
Analysts believe the temporary truce has only improved short-term sentiment—markets are pricing in the likelihood of de-escalation, but the overall situation remains fragile.
Investor caution is warranted as risks of further destruction persist. In addition to the attack on the petrochemical facility in Jubail, Saudi authorities reported intercepting several ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern region.
"Risks to key energy infrastructure remain—supply restrictions may not disappear even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens," analysts stated.
Contradictory Macroeconomic Background
The economic situation also remains ambiguous. Employment in the US rose in March, but broader indicators like JOLTS point to a cooling labor market.
The Federal Reserve anticipates a slowdown in growth, making negative employment data a less reliable indicator of a potential recession. According to QCP experts, the Fed is balancing between a weak economy and a new wave of inflation driven by energy costs. Future actions will depend on consumer price statistics, which will be released on April 10.
"The movement in the options market resembles a spike driven by news rather than a full risk reset. Short-term Bitcoin volatility decreased after the ceasefire, but demand for downside protection has not waned—investors are still hedging even as prices rise," analysts emphasized.
Traders are actively betting on a rise in the $75,000-$85,000 range and a drop to the $60,000-$65,000 zone. A key question remains whether the leading cryptocurrency can break through resistance at $74,000.
Improved Sentiment, but Structure Remains Weak
The announcement of the ceasefire prompted an immediate market reaction. In the derivatives segment, Binance saw aggressive buying volume reach $2.7 billion within just two hours, noted CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
🟢 $2.7B of BTC buy volume emerges on Binance derivatives after ceasefire news.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 8, 2026
While an announcement from President Trump was expected at 8:00 PM (ET), he ultimately declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran about one hour earlier.
☑️ This ceasefire also includes the reopening… pic.twitter.com/FAJfNvCCeS
"For Bitcoin, this is a good sign, but the dynamics still heavily depend on further news and geopolitics," he explained.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr confirmed that sentiment in the futures market has moved out of the local pressure zone. Over three days, Bitcoin rose from $66,800 to $71,700, and the corresponding index climbed from 23.4 to 53.1.
Bitcoin bounced hard.
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 8, 2026
Futures are already signaling recovery.
Market structure still refuses to confirm it.
Morning Brief 143 👇https://t.co/BroCpcESi2 pic.twitter.com/7kjXri7qkV
However, just hours after the ceasefire announcement, the growth was followed by a cooling period. For the upward movement to continue, the asset needs to maintain current levels without sharp pullbacks.
The technical picture in the spot market has improved, but not as significantly as in the derivatives sector. The composite structure indicator rose from -0.58 to -0.03, indicating a shift from a bearish to a neutral market phase.
At the same time, the price of digital gold is in the lower third of its 21-day range (29%). Recovery is occurring at the lower boundary, while trend changes are typically confirmed at the upper boundary.
"The derivatives block turned around faster than the price structure itself. This is a good sign for short-term recovery, but not definitive proof that the market has entered a phase of sustainable rally," Adler concluded.
What’s Next?
Traders are wary of a potential bear flag pattern forming on Bitcoin's daily chart. Analyst Jelle warned against "falling into euphoria" over the recent rally—growth may hit resistance at the upper boundary of the pattern, in the $72,000-$76,000 range.
From the bearish point of view, $BTC bulls still have a lot of work to do.
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) April 8, 2026
The argument for a bearish flag into key resistance remains strong.
News pumps into resistance, easy to get euphoric…
Sticking to my long-term plan; let's roll. pic.twitter.com/ZUnCZhDGFR
"Bitcoin has reclaimed $72,000, but bears are on standby. The level at $76,000 will be crucial. Above that, the target is $86,000-$90,000; below it, a new drop to $60,000," added another expert under the pseudonym Crypto Patel.
It’s worth noting that Coin Bureau head Nick Pakrin called the level below $68,000 for the leading cryptocurrency "dangerous."