Prediction markets have surged to $50 billion in trading volume during the World Cup, outpacing traditional sportsbooks and attracting significant user engagement.
Prediction markets have seen an unprecedented surge, eclipsing traditional sportsbooks with a staggering $50 billion in trading volume during the first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Prediction markets achieve record trading volume amid World Cup excitement
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicked off, platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood's Rothera reported extraordinary trading volumes, challenging the established sportsbook market.
Kalshi boasted an impressive $31 billion in total notional trading volume for June, marking a 70% increase from May, with sports contracts constituting around 85% of its activity. The platform's World Cup-specific trading volume reached $22.42 billion. Polymarket also set a new record with an overall trading volume of $10.8 billion, including $3.5 billion from its U.S. platform, nearly double its May figures. Rothera, a new venture by Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, processed $2 billion in its first month, capturing a 7% share of the U.S. prediction market, as per Bank of America’s report.
In contrast, U.S. legal sportsbooks are projected to manage between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion throughout the tournament. Kalshi's specific World Cup markets alone generated $7.4 billion in June.
Changing Dynamics in Betting
Polymarket's international exchange recorded $10.8 billion in volume, with U.S. traders contributing $571 million to its political markets over the past year, showing a significant interest in prediction markets.
Despite past legal challenges, Polymarket has adapted to serve U.S. customers more effectively, launching a compliant platform that allows users to trade legally with full identity verification and U.S. dollars.
Demographic Shifts and Market Growth
Kalshi, now FIFA's official prediction market partner, has seen its daily active users increase by 36% since June 15, while traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel have experienced declines of 36% and 41%, respectively. Notably, Kalshi's female user base surged by 106%, indicating a successful outreach to demographics previously less engaged with betting.
The increased exposure and advertising during matches have contributed to Kalshi and Polymarket capturing 78.5% of app installs across major platforms, a significant rise from only 6% the previous year.
Wall Street Takes Notice
The World Cup has attracted not only retail bettors but also institutional interest, with firms like DRW focusing on prediction markets using advanced trading strategies. This shift signifies a broader acceptance of prediction markets as credible financial instruments.
While traditional sportsbooks have reported record betting numbers, the emergence of prediction markets suggests a changing landscape in sports betting, where these platforms are gaining traction and reshaping user behavior.
As the World Cup progresses, the potential for prediction markets to further challenge traditional sportsbooks becomes increasingly evident, with total World Cup betting expected to exceed $50 billion globally.
