Prediction markets achieved over $50 billion in trading volume, reflecting the first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
By Oliver Knight|Edited by Nikhilesh De Jul 14, 2026, 11:00 a.m. 6 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on World Cup volume reaches $50 billion in prediction markets (Fauzan Saari/Unsplash)SummaryShow
- Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood's Rothera experienced record volumes as the 2026 World Cup commenced.
- Kalshi attracted a significant influx of female and first-time bettors, surpassing traditional sportsbooks.
- Major institutional trading firms are entering this market, treating prediction markets as legitimate financial derivatives.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was anticipated to be the largest sports betting event in U.S. history, but the emergence of two prediction market startups has posed a serious challenge to the established gambling sector.
The statistics reveal a compelling story. Kalshi reported a staggering $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, reflecting a more than 70% increase from May, with sports-related contracts making up about 85% of its trading, according to Dune analytics. The platform indicated to CoinDesk that its World Cup-specific volume has reached $22.42 billion. Meanwhile, Polymarket's global exchange set a new record with an overall trading volume of $10.8 billion, while its regulated U.S. platform recorded $3.5 billion, nearly double that of May. Rothera, a collaboration between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group that launched in June, processed $2 billion in its first month, claiming a 7% share of the U.S. prediction market, as reported by Bank of America.
It's important to note that prediction markets extend beyond sports; both Kalshi and Polymarket offer contracts related to political elections, economic indicators, and even reality television shows like Love Island. In contrast, U.S. legal sportsbooks are expected to manage between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion during the tournament's 104 matches. Kalshi’s World Cup-specific markets alone generated $7.4 billion in June before the group stages concluded.
The Ban That Wasn't
A particularly notable figure is the $10.8 billion recorded on Polymarket's international exchange, particularly the $571 million derived from U.S.-linked wallets.
According to onchain analysis firm Allium, U.S. traders contributed $571 million to Polymarket's political markets over the past year, surpassing any other nation, including Hong Kong at $422 million. This situation requires clarification, as Polymarket's standing with American users in 2026 is not as straightforward as a ban.
Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC in 2022 for operating unregistered event-based derivatives and agreed to cease services for U.S. customers. However, American users have continued to access the platform via virtual private networks. In late 2025, the platform returned by acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million, receiving an Amended Order of Designation from the regulator in November, and launching a U.S. iOS app in December. The waitlist was eliminated in May 2026, allowing Americans to use Polymarket legally.
However, the regulated U.S. application and the global platform are fundamentally different. The U.S. version requires full KYC identity verification, is funded through registered futures commission merchants instead of crypto wallets, and settles in U.S. dollars. The global platform, still blocked for U.S. IP addresses, does not require identity checks, settles in USDC, and offers a far wider array of markets.
The $571 million figure pertains to Americans trading on the global platform using VPNs and existing crypto wallets. Allium tracked wallet behavior rather than IP addresses, which explains how a VPN that bypasses geoblocking still shows U.S. activity in the data.
Kalshi's Breakthrough Moment
Kalshi was named FIFA's official prediction market partner during the tournament, securing branding rights, in-venue presence, and a media distribution agreement with Fox Sports. Notably, user growth was already underway prior to Kalshi's co-branding deal with ADI Predictstreet, FIFA World Cup’s official prediction market partner, signed on June 26, just four days before Apptopia data was recorded. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have heavily advertised during matches, with commercials airing during halftime and hydration breaks on American broadcasts.
According to Apptopia data, as of June 30, Kalshi's daily active users were 36% higher than their June 15 levels. In contrast, DraftKings experienced a 36% decline from its tournament peak, FanDuel dropped by 41%, while BetMGM and Caesars each saw a 32% decrease. Traditional sportsbook apps surged early on but faded, while prediction markets saw steady growth.
Kalshi and Polymarket together represented 78.5% of betting app installs across six major platforms tracked by Apptopia through June, compared to only about 6% a year earlier.
The demographic shifts were equally striking. Kalshi's female user base grew by 106% during the tournament, significantly outpacing the 54% increase among male users. Kalshi attributed some of this growth to the reality TV program Love Island, as reported by Barron's, with additional growth linked to the World Cup itself. By late June, 33.3% of Kalshi's users were female, compared to 22-23% for DraftKings and FanDuel. This indicates a successful draw of individuals who had never previously engaged with betting products.
YouGov's BrandIndex verified the mainstream breakthrough. Kalshi was the only prediction market operator and betting-adjacent entity to feature on the list of brands gaining significant consumer momentum during the World Cup, among more than 2,000 tracked companies. It ranked alongside Coca-Cola, Pepsi, and Visa, surpassing even Fox, the tournament's primary broadcaster.
A New Player Enters the Scene
Rothera debuted in June, achieving $2 billion in notional volume by the end of the month and capturing a 7% share of the U.S. prediction market, according to Bank of America—approximately double what Kalshi's entire platform processed monthly before the Super Bowl. The platform, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, was established following Robinhood's acquisition of exchange operator MIAXdx in January, with Robinhood routing World Cup contracts through it from the outset.
The World Cup has not only attracted retail bettors to prediction markets; it has also drawn interest from Wall Street. DRW, a major trading firm based in Chicago, has been developing a dedicated prediction market desk focusing on Polymarket and Kalshi, employing cross-platform arbitrage strategies typically used in derivatives markets.
Traditional Sportsbooks: Record Numbers, But Not the Sole Focus Anymore
Prior to the tournament, gaming research firm Eilers and Krejcik estimated that U.S. legal sportsbooks would manage between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion throughout the 104 matches. These projections now seem conservative. Operators have reported that the tournament has surpassed their most optimistic internal forecasts, with final state-level reporting still pending.
Anecdotal evidence is equally compelling. The recent U.S. vs Belgium round-of-16 match became the most wagered soccer game in the history of several major U.S. sportsbooks. BetMGM noted that it received more bets than any 2026 College Football Playoff game except for the championship, as well as any title-series game from the NBA, NHL, or MLB. "This World Cup has produced record-type handle for us throughout," stated BetMGM's Christian Cipollini to ESPN. DraftKings reported that their handle was approximately five times higher than in 2022.
Various factors contributed to this trend: 39 states now permit legal mobile sports betting, up from 19 in 2022, North American hosting allowed for prime-time kickoffs, and the U.S. team's progression to the round of 16 generated unprecedented domestic interest in soccer. Caesars indicated that 81% of its handle on the U.S. knockout match was on the Americans to advance. Globally, total World Cup betting is expected to surpass $50 billion.
Reputable international sportsbooks such as Pinnacle serve as pricing benchmarks for the entire ecosystem. The nearly identical odds for World Cup winner across Kalshi, Polymarket, and major sportsbooks demonstrate efficient arbitrage among platforms, with sharp money moving to align prices as discrepancies arise. Prediction markets, once criticized for low liquidity, now exhibit sufficient volume that seasoned traders view the prices as credible.
A more significant indicator may be the trend in user behavior. Apptopia's data revealed that sportsbook users increasingly explored Kalshi throughout the tournament, while the percentage of Kalshi users accessing sportsbook apps decreased. The expectation that prediction markets would act as a feeder for traditional sports betting has not materialized; instead, Kalshi users appear to be remaining loyal to the platform.
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Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months
Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 13, 2026CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
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