On June 22, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to accelerate the transition of federal systems to post-quantum cryptography. Experts support this direction but caution that the situation for Bitcoin is more complex, as a decentralized network cannot be updated by government decree.
Stefan Leichenauer, Vice President of Engineering and Lead Scientist at SandboxAQ, told Decrypt that predicting the exact arrival of a cryptographically significant quantum computer is challenging, but a timeframe of three to ten years seems plausible. He warned that the migration to post-quantum cryptography will take years, and organizations are likely already falling behind schedule.
Alex Pruden, CEO of Project Eleven, described the White House's timeline revision as overdue. He stated that Project Eleven assesses the probability of a cryptographically significant quantum computer emerging by 2030 at 10%, and by 2033 at 50%.
Paul Stimers, Executive Director of the Quantum Industry Coalition, noted that industry roadmaps are converging around the 2028–2030 timeframe. However, he cautioned that public estimates may not account for classified quantum programs in the U.S. and other countries.
What This Means for Bitcoin
According to The Block, the orders could accelerate investments and development in quantum security, including for the blockchain industry. However, these documents pertain to federal systems and contractors, not decentralized protocols.
The quantum threat arises from the potential for a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to break some of the cryptography used today. For Bitcoin, the key risk lies not in mining but in signatures: if a public key is revealed, a future quantum computer could potentially recover it and sign transactions.
In March, BTQ Technologies launched the Bitcoin Quantum v0.3.0 testnet, implementing BIP-360. This proposal introduces a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type designed to eliminate the quantum-vulnerable key-path spend characteristic of Taproot.
BIP-360 is listed in the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals repository, but the repository clarifies that the publication of a BIP does not imply community consensus or readiness for adoption. It is a formal step in the discussion process, not an approved network update.
In April, developers proposed BIP-361, which outlines a stricter migration scenario: if owners refuse to transition to quantum-resistant addresses, coins on vulnerable addresses with exposed public keys could be locked under certain conditions. This proposal sparked debate: supporters see it as a necessary protective measure, while critics view it as a violation of the principle of sovereign control over coins.
Why Migration May Be Challenging
In May, Project Eleven published a report titled The Quantum Threat to Blockchains 2026. The company stated that Q-Day in the baseline scenario is expected in 2033, with an optimistic scenario pointing to 2030 and a pessimistic one to 2042.
For Bitcoin, the issue is not just technical. The transition will require coordination among developers, miners, exchanges, custodians, wallets, and large holders. In a network where significant changes historically occur slowly and provoke political disputes, this poses an additional risk. Migration could affect signature sizes, consensus rules, wallets, exchange infrastructure, custody services, and user practices. Thus, even with working prototypes, the journey from proposal to activation could take years.
Other Networks Are Moving Faster
Unlike Bitcoin, some ecosystems are already publishing more centralized plans. For instance, in June, the Stellar Development Foundation released its document, while the Algorand Foundation also published a roadmap, and Coinbase's council outlined scenarios for Bitcoin's quantum migration.
Nicolas Consigny, project lead at the Ethereum Foundation (EF), proposed a concept for protecting accounts from quantum computer attacks. The solution, called SPHINCS-, aims to secure wallets without requiring a hard fork.
It's worth noting that in January, the EF declared post-quantum security a top strategic priority and formed a dedicated team of developers.