Your day-ahead look for July 18, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 16, 2026, 11:27 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The recent shift in options indicates that the upper limit of Bitcoin's price range has decreased by $10,000. (Maya Kruchankova/Shutterstock)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
The options market for Bitcoin BTC$64,219.84 has seen a significant change that may hinder the cryptocurrency's rise above the $70,000 mark.
This alteration is linked to the open interest in options, a metric that reflects the dollar amount tied up in call (bullish) and put (bearish) contracts at different strike prices. The $70,000 call option has gained traction, boasting an open interest of $1.63 billion, as indicated by data from Metrics. This option speculates that BTC's value will exceed that threshold before the contract's expiration.
However, it is crucial to note that the $70,000 strike has now overtaken the $80,000 call as the leading choice.
For the preceding six months, the $80,000 call was the most prominent, maintaining comparable open interest levels, while the $60,000 put was the preferred downside bet. In that timeframe, analysts frequently referenced Bitcoin's $60,000-$80,000 price range.
Essentially, the upper limit has likely shifted down to $70,000, while the $60,000 put remains the favored option, potentially serving as a floor for Bitcoin's price.
The ramifications extend further. Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, mentioned that dealers possess a "net long gamma exposure" above $70,000. This indicates that dealers, who aim to keep a market-neutral stance while profiting from the bid-ask spread, would sell or short in a rising market above $70,000 to maintain neutrality or hedge their positions.
"This hedging acts as a brake, limiting the speed at which BTC can surge once it reaches that level," Lakha stated, noting that ether (ETH) is less affected by dealer gamma dynamics and can ascend more rapidly.
Bitcoin was trading close to $64,100, reflecting a nearly 1% decline since midnight UTC. Other leading cryptocurrencies, such as ether, XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL), experienced similar downturns, while Nasdaq 100 index futures dropped by 0.5%.
"As is often the case, a sudden sell-off could occur due to shocks in the financial markets, potentially causing BTC or global stock indices to plummet, but anticipating such events is a challenging endeavor,” remarked Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “In these circumstances, purchasing during a calm market at under half of peak values seems to be a sound strategy for the next few days or weeks.”
Stay vigilant!
For further insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activity, refer to Crypto Markets Today. To see a comprehensive list of events this week, check out CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- DTCC moves tokenized securities into live trading, marking a milestone for Wall Street's blockchain push (CoinDesk): The DTCC, a key player in the U.S. securities settlement infrastructure, executed its first series of live trades involving tokenized securities, representing a significant test of blockchain technology in conventional finance.
- A bitcoin wallet dormant since the 2017 peak just moved $383 million (CoinDesk): A Bitcoin wallet that hadn't been active for eight years transferred 5,908 BTC valued at approximately $383 million on Thursday. The wallet acquired the coins when BTC was priced around $16,000.
- Treasury yields rise as Wall Street awaits key employment data (CNBC): U.S. Treasury yields increased by 2% on Thursday in anticipation of U.S. employment data set to be released later today. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is 4.573%, the two-year is 4.158%, and the 30-year is 5.107%.
- U.S. expands strikes into northern Iran and disables ship trying to run blockade (AP): The U.S. has intensified its military operations in Iran, targeting areas further north and firing upon a vessel accused of attempting to breach its naval blockade. Iran has retaliated.
Today’s signal
BTC options Deribit: OI distribution across strike prices. (Deribit Metrics)The chart illustrates the allocation of notional open interest in Bitcoin call and put options across various strike prices.
The $70,000 call has emerged as the leading position, with notional open interest surpassing $1.6 billion. Until recently, the $80,000 call held the top rank. The $80,000 call still occupies second place in open interest, followed by the $72,000 call.
Overall, more capital has been invested in call options (bullish bets) compared to put options.
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Why it matters:
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