Polymarket Trader Turns $4 Million into $9 Million After Spain's World Cup Draw

Markets A trader on Polymarket has transformed a mere $4 million into $9 million following an unexpected draw between Spain and Cabo Verde in the World Cup, raising questions among analysts about whether this was sheer luck or if inside information played a role.

A newly established account has successfully converted approximately $4 million into a profit of $9 million by betting against Spain, prompting speculation among on-chain analysts regarding the nature of this unusual trade.

By Shaurya Malwa | Edited by Jamie Crawley Updated June 16, 2026, 11:59 AM Published June 16, 2026, 11:45 AM Translated by AI 2 min read

The World Cup debut of Cabo Verde saw them hold the tournament favorite, Spain, to a scoreless draw. This unexpected result created significant opportunities for bettors, particularly for a new account identified as “fishalive,” which managed to turn $4 million into approximately $9 million by betting against Spain and predicting Cabo Verde would stay within 2.5 goals.

Another Polymarket user, known as “betoor619,” faced a loss of nearly $1 million after backing Spain to win, which would have yielded only around $85,000, illustrating the risks involved when wagering on heavily favored teams.

The match ended in a 0-0 draw, marking a significant upset for Spain, who were considered the reigning European champions and pre-tournament favorites. Cabo Verde, participating in their first World Cup without any notable professional players, saw their 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha, named player of the match.

The winning account, created just days prior and named 'fishalive', made two strategic bets against Spain, as reported by on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain. The bets included wagering that Spain would not secure a win and that Cabo Verde would remain within a 2.5 goal margin.

As the match concluded with a 0-0 scoreline, both bets were successful, leading the wallet to redeem around $4.7 million on the Spain market and $8.5 million on the spread, resulting in a profit of roughly $9 million in just a single day.

Contrarily, 'betoor619' lost nearly $1 million, having placed about $1.1 million on Spain to win when their win probability was estimated at 92%. The potential payout for this bet would have been a modest $85,000, exemplifying the low return on betting on nearly certain outcomes.

Notably, this account had a history of never winning or losing more than $9,000 on a single event prior to this incident.

Polymarket operates as a prediction market where users trade shares linked to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied odds and settlements conducted in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the dollar, on a public blockchain.

Traders utilize crypto wallets and engage under pseudonyms, a practice that has attracted criticism from lawmakers due to the lack of background checks that regulated sportsbooks typically enforce.

The Spain match alone saw around $64 million in trading volume. Overall, Polymarket's market for the tournament winner has attracted approximately $2.4 billion, making it the largest event since last year's U.S. elections and surpassing the roughly $1.4 billion wagered during this year’s Super Bowl.

However, the transparency that allows for anonymous betting also leaves a public record. Observers could track 'fishalive' as it converted millions into nine in real time, raising questions about how a newly established account came to make such substantial bets against a 92% favorite.

While the trader’s identity remains unknown, it is likely that this anonymous account will gain a following from those hoping to replicate its success in future trades.