A trader on Polymarket turned $4 million into $9 million after Spain's unexpected World Cup draw against Cabo Verde, raising speculation about their strategy.
A trader on Polymarket has achieved a remarkable feat, turning a $4 million investment into $9 million following an unexpected scoreless draw between Spain and Cabo Verde during the World Cup. This outcome has sparked debate among analysts regarding whether the trader's success stemmed from luck or insider knowledge.
Unusual Bets Yield Massive Returns
The newly registered account, known as “fishalive,” capitalized on the surprising draw by betting against Spain, a team favored to win. By predicting that Cabo Verde would remain within a 2.5 goal margin, the account made strategic wagers that ultimately paid off handsomely.
The match, which ended in a 0-0 draw, marked a significant upset for Spain, the reigning European champions and pre-tournament favorites. Cabo Verde, participating in their first World Cup, had no standout professional players, yet their goalkeeper, Vozinha, was named player of the match.
On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that the account 'fishalive,' created just days before the match, made two key bets: one against Spain winning and another on Cabo Verde staying within the goal margin. Both wagers were successful, resulting in a payout of approximately $4.7 million on the Spain market and $8.5 million on the spread, culminating in a total profit of around $9 million in a single day.
In contrast, another Polymarket user, “betoor619,” lost nearly $1 million after betting on Spain to win, which had a win probability of 92%. The potential return for this bet was only about $85,000, highlighting the risks of wagering on heavily favored teams.
Prior to this event, the 'fishalive' account had a modest history, never winning or losing more than $9,000 on a single bet. The match itself generated about $64 million in trading volume, contributing to Polymarket's overall tournament market, which has seen around $2.4 billion in wagers—making it the largest since last year's U.S. elections.
Polymarket functions as a prediction market where users trade shares based on real-world outcomes, with settlements made in USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin. The platform's anonymous nature has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about the lack of oversight typical in regulated sportsbooks.
While the identity of the successful trader remains unknown, the account's dramatic rise in fortune is likely to attract attention from others eager to replicate its success in future betting scenarios.
