Since the beginning of the year, monthly trading volume in prediction markets has surged to a record $20 billion, with the number of unique wallets tripling to 840,000. This data was shared by analysts at TRM Labs.

Source: TRM Labs.

From Cryptocurrencies to Geopolitics

The majority of trading activity is driven by geopolitical events, macroeconomic indicators, and the political agenda in the U.S. These factors have overshadowed the previously dominant cryptocurrency-related bets on prediction platforms.

This shift occurred amid a downturn in the digital asset sector. On Polymarket, trading has shifted towards tariffs (116 active markets), ceasefire scenarios in Ukraine, and tensions between China and Taiwan.

A contract predicting a U.S. strike on Iran attracted $73 million, setting a record for geopolitical markets on the platform.

On February 28, Polymarket set a daily record of $425 million, surpassing the previous high during the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. This record was fueled by developments in Iranian markets, with betting volume on the contract regarding Khamenei's departure skyrocketing from $23,000 to $29.6 million in a single day—a staggering increase of 1,275 times, marking the largest daily jump in history.

Market Structure

Analysts identified four defining characteristics of Polymarket's structure:

  1. Geopolitics dominates, but not in a single theme. Volume is fragmented across overlapping issues: leadership outcomes (Khamenei, Xi, Netanyahu), conflict scenarios (Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela), and political events (U.S. shutdowns).
  2. U.S. politics remains the second most significant pillar. Contracts tied to domestic political events.
  3. The market does not distinguish between 'serious' and 'non-serious' events. Alongside war, elections, and macroeconomic issues, bets in the entertainment and culture categories are also popular.
  4. Platforms do not categorize contracts by instrument type, creating a 'super app' experience where users trade various instruments on a single platform.

At all levels, markets related to international relations and macroeconomics take the lead, with cryptocurrencies holding a minor share.

Profitability and Strategies

The top 10 most successful wallets on Polymarket at the beginning of 2026 exhibited three behavioral models:

  • Macro conviction—several addresses focused on Federal Reserve decisions, earning $3.26 million;
  • Algorithmic market-making—a user earned $3.35 million through over a million small trades on Oscar-related markets;
  • Event opportunism—a trader created a wallet, capitalized on Ethereum price fluctuations, earned $709,000, and exited.

The top address earned $6.2 million across various markets, including Federal Reserve meetings, the World Cup, and the 2028 U.S. presidential elections.

Six out of ten wallets traded daily for 80 days from January 1 to March 22.

Source: TRM Labs.

New Investments

On March 27, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a $600 million investment in Polymarket—part of a previously agreed financing round in which the company will invest $2 billion in the platform.

ICE also mentioned the possibility of acquiring up to $40 million in Polymarket securities from existing holders, which would increase its stake during the current fundraising phase. Terms have not been disclosed but will be announced later.

It’s worth noting that the Kalshi project raised over $1 billion in a new funding round, boosting its valuation to $22 billion. The deal was led by Coatue Management.