The prediction platform Polymarket has partnered with analytics service Kaito AI to launch "attention markets," which will allow users to bet on social media trends, according to Forbes.
This new tool relies on data from X, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. Kaito AI's algorithms track two key metrics:
- mindshare — the frequency of mentions;
- sentiment — the tone of statements (positive or negative).
Users will be able to trade contracts predicting public opinion. Examples of markets include: "Will mentions of Anthropic exceed those of OpenAI next month?" or "Will audience loyalty to Elon Musk increase?".
The full launch is scheduled for early March, with dozens of markets related to artificial intelligence debuting first. Later, categories for entertainment and global events will be added. By the end of the year, the partners plan to open thousands of such contracts.
In a test phase, Polymarket launched two pilot markets last November. The betting volume in the pool predicting the platform's media presence growth by 2026 has already surpassed $1.3 million.
Kaito's CEO, Yu Hu, believes that the combination of aggregator data and trading activity will provide a more accurate assessment of public opinion than traditional surveys.
Jump Trading and Prediction Markets
According to sources from Bloomberg, proprietary trading firm Jump Trading has agreed to acquire stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket. In return, the firm will provide liquidity to the platforms.
The deals are structured as a venture model — Jump receives assets in exchange for trading resources. The terms vary:
- in Kalshi, the firm will receive a fixed equity stake;
- the stake in Polymarket will grow proportionally to the trading capacity that Jump provides for operations on the U.S. exchange.
Recall that on February 1, the liquidity aggregator Jupiter, based on Solana, integrated Polymarket.