Polymarket Blocked in Portugal
Platforms like Polymarket have set a new record for daily trading volume, surpassing $814 million, according to data from Dune.
In just part of January, the total trading volume reached $10.9 billion, nearing December's figure of $11.5 billion.
Kalshi remains the market leader, with its trading volume exceeding $6 billion over 21 days.
In second place is the Opinion platform, backed by YZi Labs and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, with $2.1 billion. Polymarket's volume stood at $2 billion.
Polymarket leads in open interest, holding a 41.1% share ($391 million), while Kalshi accounts for 38.1% ($334 million).
The surge in user activity has resulted in record commission fees for the platforms. Last week, fees exceeded $2.7 million, an all-time high.
Opinion led the way, capturing 54% of the total ($1.5 million). Polymarket earned about $787,000, primarily from short-term 15-minute markets.
Amid the excitement, this sector's share of the overall cryptocurrency spot trading volume has, for the first time, exceeded 1%.
A New Phase of Development
Analysts at Galaxy Research noted that the prediction market has entered a phase of widespread recognition and active capital attraction. The industry's momentum has been fueled by the rapid growth of Polymarket and Kalshi, along with a wave of startups testing innovative product solutions.
The Shape of Prediction Markets to Come
— will owens (@wowens) January 20, 2026
new @glxyresearch report
I cover leverage, AI agents, DeFi composability, liquidity, and U.S. regulation pic.twitter.com/2NoE4kYr4h
However, experts point to a fundamental weakness in the sector: a lack of liquidity. This challenge persists despite the influx of users and increased developer interest in the technology.
Blocking in Portugal
The Portuguese Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) has ordered the complete cessation of operations and the blocking of Polymarket, local media reports. The reason cited was an abnormal volume of bets on the presidential elections: just hours before the results, the betting amount exceeded €4 million, and the total market turnover reached €110 million.
Such volumes raised concerns for regulators that bets may have been placed using non-public information, such as leaks from exit polls.
SRIJ determined that Polymarket:
- Lacks a license to accept bets.
- Violates the law by offering political bets that are prohibited in the country.
SRIJ issued a notice on January 16, giving the project team 48 hours to cease operations. Since the site remained accessible after the deadline, authorities initiated a blocking of the resource at the internet service provider level.
It is worth noting that in November, the National Gambling Office of Romania added Polymarket to its blacklist, deeming the platform's activities unlicensed.