Prediction markets have hit a record daily trading volume of $814 million, with significant activity from Kalshi and Opinion, while Polymarket faces regulatory challenges in Portugal.
Prediction markets have achieved a significant milestone, with daily trading volumes exceeding $814 million, as reported by Dune Analytics.
In the early days of January alone, the total trading volume approached $10.9 billion, closely trailing December's total of $11.5 billion.
Kalshi leads the market with over $6 billion in trading volume over a 21-day period, followed by Opinion, which has garnered $2.1 billion. Polymarket stands at $2 billion.
In terms of open interest, Polymarket dominates with a 41.1% share, equivalent to $391 million, while Kalshi holds 38.1% with $334 million.
This surge in trading activity has driven platforms to record commission fees, which last week topped $2.7 million, marking a new high. Opinion accounted for the majority at 54%, earning approximately $1.5 million, while Polymarket generated around $787,000 predominantly from short-term markets.
Notably, prediction markets have now surpassed 1% of the total cryptocurrency spot trading volume for the first time.
According to analysts from Galaxy Research, the prediction market sector is entering a new phase characterized by increased recognition and capital inflow. This growth is attributed to the rapid expansion of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, along with numerous startups exploring innovative solutions.
"The Shape of Prediction Markets to Come: new report by @glxyresearch discusses leverage, AI agents, DeFi composability, liquidity, and U.S. regulation" — will owens (@wowens) January 20, 2026
Despite this momentum, experts warn of a critical issue: liquidity remains a challenge in the sector, even as user engagement and developer interest rise.
In a separate development, the Portuguese Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) has mandated the suspension of Polymarket's operations due to concerns over excessive betting on the presidential elections. Reports indicate that betting amounts surpassed €4 million shortly before the election results were announced, raising alarms about potential insider information being used.
SRIJ cited two primary reasons for the action:
The regulatory body issued a notice on January 16, requiring the platform to halt operations within 48 hours. Following the expiration of this deadline without compliance, authorities initiated a block on the platform at the ISP level. Previously, in November, Romania's National Gambling Office had also blacklisted Polymarket for operating without a license.
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