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In April 2026, spot trading volumes on cryptocurrency exchanges dropped to their lowest level since November 2023, while the share of derivatives in trading volume reached 77.1%. The situation seems paradoxical: actual trading of assets is declining, yet interest in leveraged bets remains high.
This shift is driven by more than just market conditions. As noted by crypto journalist Colin Wu, perpetual contracts have secured a strong foothold in the industry largely because they tap into a specific feature of the human brain—one that slot machines have exploited for centuries.
Let’s explore how rational trading transforms into gambling and why it’s harder to exit this game than it seems.
Spot Trading Declines While Bets Rise
A perpetual contract is a futures contract with no expiration date. In 1992, economist Robert Shiller proposed the idea of a “perpetual” derivative for assets that are difficult to value directly, such as real estate. While this concept did not take off in traditional finance, it found a significant market in cryptocurrencies.
BitMEX launched its Bitcoin perpetual contract (XBTUSD) on May 13, 2016, and the product quickly became an industry standard. However, the invention of the “perp” belongs to another exchange—ICBIT, which first implemented a reverse perpetual contract back in 2011 .
Why cryptocurrencies? Several reasons contribute to this:
- The market operates 24/7 without breaks or trading sessions, making traditional futures with expiration less convenient;
- Digital assets lack a single authoritative price: quotes are scattered across dozens of platforms. The funding rate keeps the contract price close to the spot index, replacing expiration calculations;
- Speculation is embedded in the industry culture, and “perps” provide access to leveraged trading, allowing profits from both rising and falling markets with a relatively low entry threshold.
According to CoinGlass, the volume of Bitcoin perpetual futures consistently exceeds spot trading by 5 to 10 times. Actual asset transactions are increasingly giving way to bets on price movements.
The paradox is that a tool designed as a convenient way to hedge and price assets has primarily become a mechanism for quick bets for the average user.
Trading volume dynamics for spot and derivatives since April 2025, along with the share of derivatives in total trading volume. Source: CoinDesk.The Brain Prefers Uncertainty Over Winning
Gambling is enticing not because of the wins, but due to their unpredictability. In the mid-20th century, psychologist B.F. Skinner demonstrated that behavior is reinforced more effectively by random rewards than by regular ones—this is known as a variable reinforcement schedule.
In his experiments, pigeons that received food after a random number of lever pulls pecked at the lever more frequently and persistently than those who received food consistently. The driving force was the anticipation born from uncertainty.
Students placing a pigeon in Skinner's box. Source: Wikipedia.The same mechanism operates in humans, driven by dopamine—a neurotransmitter associated with anticipation rather than pleasure itself. These neurons respond not so much to the reward itself but to the error in its prediction: the stronger the surprise, the greater the spike. If a win is guaranteed and predictable, the reaction is minimal. When the outcome is uncertain, the brain is maximally excited.
It’s no coincidence that slot machines have long been the primary revenue source for casinos, overshadowing card tables and roulette. Anthropologist Natasha Dow Schüll, in her study of the gambling industry in Las Vegas, showed that the solitary, continuous, and fast-paced play on machines draws individuals into a trance-like state, which regulars refer to as the “machine zone.”
The slot machine does not operate on a schedule but unpredictably, and this uncertainty becomes a source of pleasure in itself. Losing almost never sobers the player up: the next attempt could yield a jackpot.
Especially insidious is the “near miss” effect—when a combination almost comes together. The brain reacts to it as if it were a real win, prompting the player to pull the lever again.
Neurobiology confirms this observation: the dopamine system is particularly sensitive to unpredictable rewards, while it becomes less responsive to expected and routine outcomes over time. This explains why players often fixate on risky bets with low chances of success: the source of excitement is the uncertainty itself, not the actual odds. Here, winning is almost secondary—the brain cares more about not knowing the result in advance.
Thus, the pleasure associated with uncertainty can sustain itself even without regular rewards. For an addiction to form, winning does not need to be frequent or large—it's enough for the outcome to remain unpredictable.
A Slot Machine in Your Pocket
Trading “perps” replicates the aforementioned mechanics of random rewards. Traders make frequent trades with immediate but unpredictable results—essentially betting on price movements.
Researchers compare intraday trading to gambling: in both cases, individuals repeatedly wager money on an unknown outcome and receive a stream of irregular rewards.
Each time a trader opens an app and refreshes a chart, it operates on the same principle as a slot machine: a position either goes into profit—even if small—or incurs a loss, or even gets liquidated altogether.
Modern trading apps amplify this effect to the extreme. Price push notifications, pop-up profit and loss alerts, and flickering candles all break trading into a continuous stream of micro-wins and micro-losses. The same technique keeps users engaged on social media: the feed can throw up a like, a repost, or an interesting post at any moment—and it’s this unpredictability that prevents many from closing the app.
An additional layer is added by the funding rate. Every eight hours, long and short holders pay each other: if the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, and vice versa if negative.
Formally, this is a tool to tie the contract price to the spot. Psychologically, it’s a small win or loss within an already open position, arriving with the regularity of a machine that dispenses small rewards every few spins. The reward cycle is shortened even further.
Behavioral finance refers to this accompanying state as the “illusion of control”—the belief that constant monitoring and intervention allow one to manage a fundamentally random process.
A trader cannot tear themselves away from the screen, fearing they might miss a movement—and this obsession with the chart is not much different from a gambler at a roulette table.
A Casino That Never Closes
“Perps” trade 24/7—and this elevates the stakes. Traditional exchanges close at night and on weekends, providing natural breaks and opportunities to cool off.
The crypto market never closes. The casino literally lies in your pocket, and its doors never lock: there’s no break or forced “timeout” to halt the frenzy.
Leverage raises the stakes even higher. Many platforms allow leverage of several dozen times, and in some cases—up to 100x or more. This is akin to raising the stakes on a slot machine: both risk and potential reward grow, as does the temptation to go all in. Combined with 24/7 access, it creates an endless fast-paced game where account balances can change drastically in seconds, keeping the trader's brain in a constant state of excitement.
Researchers note that the shift to a 24/7 schedule significantly increases the tendency toward compulsive trading—individuals simply do not receive natural signals to leave the table.
Betting in such a mode can ultimately be costly. Analysts warn that if traditional markets transition to a 24/7 format, investors will face the same psychological risks as users of online casinos.
When the market resembles a 24/7 open hall filled with slot machines, some participants become so addicted that they may require medical intervention.
This is not a side effect but a core aspect of the business model. From a casino economics perspective, it is the relentless nature and high unpredictability that generate the main income—and crypto exchanges replicate these same principles.
A high-frequency interface, leverage tools, and round-the-clock trading ensure that users always have a reason and opportunity to place another bet. Trading itself becomes gamified: the cycle of “trade—settlement—instant feedback” is as engaging as a video game.
Why Traders Lose to Themselves
It’s not just about dopamine. Cognitive biases push retail traders toward decisions against their own interests.
There are three main mechanisms:
Loss Aversion
The pain of a loss is psychologically stronger than the joy of a comparable gain. Therefore, instead of realizing a “loss,” a person averages down their position, denies reality, or simply closes the app to avoid looking. Small losses turn into deep holes.
Many close positions “in profit” too early—fearing that their gains will evaporate. A professional, on the other hand, views a loss as a planned expense rather than a personal defeat.
Illusion of Control
This refers to the confidence that the market can be outplayed. It motivates more active trading, which only further entangles individuals in the noise of quotes.
Experienced players, conversely, understand that uncertainty cannot be tamed—and instead of fighting it, they rely on risk management tools.
Community Pressure
Screenshots of others’ profits and stories of instant wealth create a “successful success” template, while FOMO suggests that the “next big win” is just around the corner.
In such communities, losing a deposit is hardly shameful—a thrilling tale of liquidation becomes a reason to express solidarity. Emotional, and sometimes reckless trading becomes a sign of belonging to the group.
A vivid example: in spring 2025, trader James Wynn opened a long position on 10,200 BTC ($1.14 billion at the time) with 40x leverage on the Hyperliquid exchange. At its peak, his “paper” profit reached $87 million from initial investments of about $3–4 million.
Then the very biases mentioned above kicked in. After Bitcoin fell below $105,000, Wynn faced liquidation: total losses from the peak amounted to $99.3 million—in just one week.
The trader himself admitted that it would have been wiser to simply hold Bitcoin in a cold wallet. However, just a few days later, he resumed trading, increasing a new position to $140 million.
Wynn attributed his failures to conspiracy theories—manipulations by market makers and some “behind-the-scenes” forces controlling the market. He repeatedly claimed he would leave the “Hyperliquid casino,” but soon returned to trading—loss aversion and the illusion of control in pure form.
How the Casino Stays Profitable
If retail players predominantly gamble, professionals side with the casino. Their strategies rely on positive expected value. In this context, it is the statistical advantage that accumulates over a long series of trades.
Typical approaches include:
1. Statistical Arbitrage. Quantitative models capture short-term price discrepancies between related assets. Market-neutral positions isolate profits from overall market movements. High trading frequency and strict risk control turn many small wins into stable results.
2. Trend Trading. Entering based on clear rules when directional movement appears and decisively exiting with a stop-loss when a reversal occurs. Large wins on strong trends offset small losses—hence the positive expectation.
3. Market Making. Providing continuous buy and sell quotes, earning on the spread regardless of market direction. A very high proportion of profitable trades with minimal margin on each.
4. Options Strategies Without Directional Bets. Delta and gamma-neutral portfolios earn from time decay and risk premium.
What unites these strategies is not a gift of foresight but discipline. Professionals limit the risk of a single trade to a small fraction of their capital (usually 0.5–2%), use stop-losses, and set position size limits. After a loss, they follow the rules and analyze the mistake rather than trying to “get even.”
It is this discipline, rather than entry precision, that distinguishes the long-term results of the two groups. An experienced market participant strives to be the casino with a statistical edge, not a player at the machine.
The arithmetic of the instrument also plays a role. Fees, spreads, and funding rates continuously drain from traders’ pockets, turning trading into a game with negative expectation. The ones who consistently profit are those who collect these costs—exchanges and market makers. Just like in a casino.
The cost of neglecting discipline is evident on a macro level. In October 2025, the market experienced the largest cascade of liquidations in history: positions worth over $19 billion were forcibly closed in a single day. The trigger was a macro shock—the announcement of 100% tariffs by the U.S. on imports from China, exacerbated by a significant volume of borrowed funds accumulated in the system.
Up to 90% of the closures were long positions, with Hyperliquid being the epicenter—$10.3 billion. Each price drop triggered new liquidations, which in turn pulled quotes down—the spiral fed itself. Thus, mass “going all in” turned into systemic risk not just for individual accounts but for the entire market.
Is the Casino Moving to Blockchain?
Barriers are diminishing. Perpetual contracts are flowing onto decentralized platforms, where there are no KYC or intermediaries—all non-custodial, fast, and almost seamless.
The new focal point of the segment is the Hyperliquid exchange. The leading platform accounts for over 30% of the volume of all perp-DEX.
Ranking of perp-DEX by trading volume and open interest. Source: CoinGecko.The “casino in your pocket” is becoming more accessible, yet it remains niche—and this is perhaps the only good news in the story of removing the last brakes.
For a long time, trading seemed to many the most direct and thrilling path to wealth. Entering and exiting positions can be done anonymously, without regard for trading hours or the intermediaries of traditional finance. Leverage, instant execution, and the ability to play both sides complete the picture—and the market begins to look like the perfect arena for endless play.
But it is precisely this freedom, along with the seductive narrative of quick wealth, that subtly aligns trading with gambling. A novice believes they are mastering cutting-edge financial technologies. In reality, they are sinking deeper into the psychological trap of speculative addiction.
Web3 and the on-chain world are not just “casinos for those glued to their screens,” but also environments for reconstructing trust mechanisms, collaboration models, and data ownership. DeFi, DAOs, RWAs, digital identity, confidential computing, and transactions—all these are evolving frontiers.
Trading “perps” is just one direction, not the essence of Web3 or a mandatory route. And while retail flows into derivatives and gambling, on the other end are those who avoid the “machine” altogether: institutions and holders who have long sent their coins to cold storage.
This world is made complex and alluring precisely by the absence of singular correct answers. Speculation and creation coexist, narratives and technologies are equally valid, and whales and ordinary participants share the same liquidity pool.
Some profit from perpetual contracts, while others exit the market after their first liquidation. Some build protocols and transform entire industries, while others find their place in community life. There is no single correct scenario here.
As you visit the “casino” once again, it’s worth asking yourself a simple question: does the silent whale-holder, who has long sent Bitcoin to a cold wallet, need to become a trader glued to charts day and night?