Digital gold is trading near $70,000.
The price of the leading cryptocurrency has stabilized around $70,000 following a recent spike in volatility. Despite macroeconomic pressures, options market participants are gearing up for a continued rally, targeting $80,000 by early summer.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Data: TradingView.
Market sentiment has been buoyed by fresh inflation data from the U.S. that aligned with analysts' expectations. The core consumer price index remained at 2.4% year-over-year. Investors typically view such predictability as a positive signal.
However, analysts urge caution: current reports do not yet account for the recent surge in oil prices. This places the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in a challenging position ahead of its March 18 meeting. While inflation has formally decreased and the labor market has cooled, instability in the energy sector could trigger a new wave of price increases.
Bitcoin's Resilience
Analysts at QCP Capital noted that the asset has confidently weathered market turmoil. After a brief drop below $63,000 during panic selling, the asset quickly rebounded to the psychological level of $70,000. Long-term investors continue to accumulate coins in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, creating a foundation for stabilization.
Nick Forster, founder of the Derive.xyz platform, stated that changes are occurring in the options segment. Traders have softened their risk hedging: the skew of options has shifted from negative to positive. The volume of put contracts sold has increased. This trend indicates expectations of stable or rising prices.
Dynamics of the put-call ratio on Deribit. Source: The Block.
According to Derive's estimates, the probability of Bitcoin rising above $80,000 by the end of June stands at 35%. Many traders believe the worst phase of the asset's decline is behind us.
Large Bets on Decline
Nonetheless, there are significant bearish bets in the market. An on-chain options transaction worth $130 million has been recorded, betting on a price drop to $65,000 by the end of March. This indicates that large capital continues to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.
Stefan Koltman, head of macroeconomics at 21Shares, warned that a rise in inflation next month is almost inevitable due to energy shocks. The Fed's response to these new figures will be a key factor for the market.
Analyst Rania Gule from XS.com stated that Bitcoin has held its ground while U.S. stocks and gold have faced pressure. The cryptocurrency is increasingly diverging from the stock market, taking on characteristics of a hybrid financial instrument.
The market has calmed compared to last week, but the situation remains fragile. The future price direction will depend on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of the U.S. regulator's meeting.
Signs of Bitcoin Stabilization
For nearly a month, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $62,800 to $72,600. Attempts to establish a foothold above $70,000 have so far been unsuccessful due to geopolitical uncertainty. However, analysts at Glassnode observe an important shift: the market is transitioning from a phase of forced liquidation to a period of stabilization.
The price is constrained between two historical levels:
- Support: realized price ($54,400) — the average purchase price of all coins in circulation;
- Resistance: true average market price ($78,400).
A cluster of accumulation is forming in the middle of this channel. Investors are gradually increasing their positions, but current volumes are still insufficient for a strong upward impulse.
Short-term holders continue to face pressure. The STH-SOPR indicator is at 0.985: values below one signal that recent buyers are realizing losses.
This pattern is typical for bearish phases. During price rebounds, this indicator creates a "ceiling": investors seek to sell assets at breakeven, halting growth.
ETF and Spot Demand
After several weeks of outflows amid corrections, a recovery has begun. The seven-day moving average of inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has returned to positive territory. Institutional investors have started to buy the dip.
Revival is also evident on spot exchanges. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicator has turned upward — indicating that buyers have begun to absorb the liquidity of sellers on major platforms. For sustainable growth, this trend needs to solidify.
When Will the Short Squeeze Happen?
In the perpetual futures market, funding rates have turned negative. This indicates a predominance of bearish sentiment: most traders are betting on a decline and paying a premium to maintain short positions.
Experts warn that if spot demand continues to rise, the accumulation of short positions could trigger a short squeeze and a sharp price spike.
In the options market, tension is also easing:
- short-term implied volatility is decreasing — traders are reducing their risk hedging volumes;
- put options are still more expensive than calls, but the gap between them is quickly narrowing;
- capital is flowing into calls — in the last 24 hours, they accounted for 40.3% of total trading volume.
Key Levels
At the current price, the spot market remains in a neutral zone. The activity of market makers in hedging positions may keep Bitcoin within the $67,000 to $71,000 corridor.
The main magnet for the price lies above: around $75,000, there is approximately $2 billion in negative gamma. If prices reach this level, market maker purchases could trigger an impulse towards $80,000. Glassnode noted that options worth $1.8 billion from this volume expire on March 27, after which the market dynamics may change.
Experts conclude that Bitcoin remains under pressure, but rising inflows into ETFs, a recovery in spot purchases, and an overheated short position market create a foundation for potential recovery.
Futures Trading Volume
On the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, the ratio of trading volume in the futures and spot markets has risen to 5.1. According to analyst CryptoQuant under the pseudonym maartunn, this is the highest level since mid-2023.
Binance Futures/Spot Ratio Hits 1.5-Year High
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 12, 2026
“It reflects structural growth in derivatives trading, with futures volume expanding significantly while spot volume has remained largely flat.” – By @JA_Maartun pic.twitter.com/WX6Lqk90UG
The current figure indicates that derivatives turnover exceeds spot trading volume by more than five times.
According to the analyst, the total figure on the platform in 2025 was $32.39 trillion. Of this:
- derivatives — $25.4 trillion;
- spot — $6.99 trillion.
Year-over-year, futures trading volume increased by 19.7% — from $21.21 trillion in 2024, while the spot segment showed no significant dynamics. According to maartunn, this indicates a structural transformation in the market: derivatives trading is actively expanding while stable demand for spot remains.
Derivatives Market
According to Deribit data, open interest in put options with a strike price of $20,000 has approached $800 million. This is the fourth most popular bet on a price decline for the leading cryptocurrency. Sidra Farik, head of retail sales at Deribit, noted that these figures should not be interpreted as expectations of a crash.
She stated that traders are selling options "deep out of the money," hoping to profit from the premiums. The likelihood of prices dropping to this level is assessed by market participants as extremely low.
Overall Market Situation
Despite rising oil prices nearing $100 per barrel, the cryptocurrency market remains resilient. Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are trading without sharp fluctuations. In this context, the HYPE token from the Hyperliquid project has gained about 7% in a day.
Analysts believe that the current consolidation is cleansing the cryptocurrency market of excessive leverage.
“The reduction in leveraged positions creates a more stable foundation for the next move when a clear macroeconomic driver emerges,” explained Diana Pires, vice president of sFOX.
However, external risks remain relevant. The MOVE index, which tracks the volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds, has risen from 60 to 76 points since late February. This trend threatens further tightening of global financial conditions, which historically puts pressure on high-risk assets.
As a reminder, in March, Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone confirmed his forecast that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could still plummet to $10,000.