Your day-ahead look for July 3, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 3, 2026, 11:27 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Options markets indicate that crypto traders are still looking for safety. (Markus Spiske/Unsplash)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Despite bitcoin BTC$61,928.30 and the overall crypto market showing recovery signs, traders are still exercising caution, as indicated by their defensive market strategies.
This cautious sentiment is apparent in the BTC and ether (ETH) options markets on Deribit, where put options, which protect against price drops, are still trading at a higher premium compared to call options, which are bullish.
Currently, bitcoin's one-week, 25-delta put-call skew stands at approximately 16%, indicating that the demand for puts exceeds that of calls by a 16% volatility point premium. Although this figure is still high, it has decreased from the 25% recorded just ten days earlier, according to data from Velo.
Longer-term skews for one, three, and six months also reflect put premiums of around 10% or more, a trend consistent with ether.
The underlying message is that concerns about price declines remain, sustaining the demand for protective measures despite an uptick in activity from BTC long-term holders and ETF investors who seem to be resuming accumulation.
Moreover, significant block flows in options indicate a preference for range-bound strategies over outright bullish positions. Block flows involve trades that are arranged privately before being listed on the exchange, often including institutions and large traders looking for confidentiality.
As reported by Laevitas, one notable flow consists of a long call condor on BTC. This strategy involves taking long positions on July 17 expiry calls at $64,000 and $70,000 strikes while shorting calls at $66,000 and $68,000 strikes. The maximum profit occurs if BTC trades between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 17.
With U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, liquidity is expected to be low over the extended weekend, potentially causing erratic price movements. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For today's analysis of altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of events this week, check out CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Securitize tokenizes $295 million of its own stock on Solana and Avalanche amid NYSE debut (CoinDesk): Securitize (SECZ), a tokenization firm supported by BlackRock (BLK) and ARK Invest, started trading on the NYSE Thursday, offering its shares to blockchain investors.
- Finally. $221 million flow into Bitcoin ETFs, ending a painful 10-day outflow streak (CoinDesk): Fidelity’s FBTC led the inflows with $165.96 million, followed by ARKB at $91.84 million and HODL at $4.35 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT experienced a $40.43 million outflow.
- World shares rally after Dow hits a record, as some AI shares bounce back (AP): Global shares increased Friday in Europe and Asia following another record set by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as certain key AI stocks rose while others saw continued declines. U.S. markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
- Oil prices stable as US-Iran peace efforts hold (Reuters): Oil prices remained steady on Friday as traders maintained hope that peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran would succeed. Brent futures were priced at $71.97 and West Texas Intermediate at $68.71.
Today’s signal
ETH/BTC ratio. (TradingView)The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio is on the rise and nearing its 100-day simple moving average (SMA).
This average is significant because, since December, the ratio has faced strong selling pressure at that level during recovery rallies, as indicated by the yellow boxes on the chart.
As the ratio approaches this average, it will be important to observe whether it can maintain a position above this critical threshold. Successfully doing so could signal a significant bottom and bullish reversal in ether's performance relative to bitcoin.
Crypto Daybook AmericasRelated AssetsBitcoin$61,954.710.79%Latest Crypto News- 1Bitcoin whales bought $16.7 billion of bitcoin in 2 weeks even as ETFs bled a record $4 billion15 minutes ago
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- 10Securitize tokenizes $295 million of its own stock on Solana and Avalanche amid NYSE debut17 hours ago
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Why it matters:
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