Key Highlights

  • OpenAI announced on August 7 that it has postponed the rollout of Astra, its internal name for GPT-6, due to concerns over cybersecurity.
  • Traders in prediction markets are placing significant bets on the model's launch by September 30.
  • No official release date for the model has been disclosed by OpenAI yet.

Traders are increasingly confident that OpenAI is preparing to unveil its next major AI model sooner than anticipated.

According to a prediction market focused on the potential release of OpenAI's Astra model, there is a 59% likelihood it will be launched by September 15, with the probability rising to about 72% by the end of the month, as indicated on Polymarket.

Myriad: Predict the release date for GPT-6 Astra. Make your prediction here.

This optimistic outlook contrasts with OpenAI's recent announcement. On August 7, the company revealed it had delayed Astra's release due to cybersecurity risks. OpenAI's disclosure was straightforward: their internal assessments indicated "significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity," leading them to conclude they "cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities" within their safety framework.

A model that meets OpenAI's Critical threshold could potentially identify and exploit vulnerabilities in various secure systems autonomously.

Despite OpenAI's caution, the Polymarket odds suggest a likely imminent release. The contract for September 15 shows a 59% chance with approximately $27,600 in trading volume, while the September 30 contract reflects a 72% chance with $35,600 in volume. Additionally, a separate market predicting the specific week favors the period from August 31 to September 6 at 39%. The contracts will resolve based on OpenAI's official announcement, as no release date has been set.

On Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, the prevailing odds favor September 30 as the most likely deadline for the launch of GPT-6. Traders on Myriad assign a 31% probability to the end of September, with only 19% for September 15 and a longshot of 5% for August 21 (which is on the rise).

The divergence between OpenAI's cautious approach and the traders' optimism is not uncommon. This year, prediction markets have reached $2 billion in weekly trading volume, with Polymarket gaining a significant lead, making OpenAI's launch dates a popular subject. Back in July, the odds for a public release of GPT-6 by September 30 were around 78%.

OpenAI's announcement clarified that Astra "was not involved in exploiting Hugging Face," distancing the model from a recent incident while considering how to proceed with a product that it admits it cannot fully safety-test.