OpenAI and Anthropic are rapidly increasing their revenue and private valuations, but their future growth increasingly hinges on access to computing power, data center funding, and regulatory decisions. This is highlighted by statements from the companies and analyst reports.
According to a notification from Sam Altman's company, OpenAI's revenue directly correlates with the available computing capacity. CFO Sara Fryer noted that from 2023 to 2025, capacity grew from 0.2 GW to approximately 1.9 GW, while annual recurring revenue surged from $2 billion to over $20 billion.
The ChatGPT developer identifies computing as the most scarce resource in AI and claims that greater access to infrastructure would accelerate product adoption and monetization. The company also stated it has shifted from reliance on a single provider to a "diversified ecosystem" of suppliers. Profit figures were not disclosed in the report.
Anthropic describes a similar rationale. On May 28, the company announced it raised $65 billion in a Series H round at a valuation of $965 billion. According to its data, annual revenue based on current sales rates exceeded $47 billion in May. The funds will be used, among other things, to expand computing capacity for Claude.
Infrastructure Costs Are Rising
Scaling advanced AI models is becoming a capital-intensive task not only for developers but also for the entire supply chain of data centers, energy, chips, and cloud infrastructure.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Research estimate that the four largest hyperscalers—Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet—will spend $5.3 trillion on capital expenditures from 2025 to 2030. These companies build and lease the infrastructure that the AI sector relies on, but OpenAI and Anthropic are not included in this group.
Goldman Sachs predicts that private markets, infrastructure funds, and real estate will play an increasingly significant role in financing data centers.
The Bank for International Settlements, in its annual economic report for 2026, warned that the five largest cloud infrastructure providers will spend over $1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditures in 2025-2026. The organization noted that these commitments already exceed the profits and free cash flow of the companies, leading some to seek debt financing.
The report stated that competition for leadership in the sector could lead to excessive investments in projects with uncertain returns. If monetization expectations are not met, this could result in a sharp reduction in funding and impact the entire investment cycle.
Regulatory Risk Has Become Part of Infrastructure
In addition to computing costs, major AI companies face the risk of sudden restrictions from authorities.
In June, Anthropic announced it had halted access to the Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models due to a directive from the U.S. government under export controls. The company noted that the government letter lacked specific details about the security issue and linked the claims to a potential circumvention of the Fable 5's safeguards.
In the same month, reports revealed that the Trump administration had asked OpenAI not to release GPT-5.6 to the public due to security concerns. Sam Altman's company will initially provide the model to a limited number of clients.
On June 30, the Department of Commerce lifted restrictions on the models, allowing Anthropic to restore access. This episode is part of an ongoing conflict between the company and U.S. authorities. In February 2026, the U.S. military deployed Claude in an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth described the developer as a "supply chain risk."
Startup CEO Dario Amodei stated that Anthropic would prefer not to cooperate with the Pentagon rather than agree to the use of its technologies in ways that could "undermine rather than protect democratic values."
IPO Plans Remain in the Background
Nonetheless, OpenAI and Anthropic continue to explore opportunities for going public. The former reported a confidential filing on June 8, while the latter did so a week earlier. Both companies emphasized that the terms of the offering have not been determined.
For investors, a key question will be not only the companies' valuations but also the economics of scaling: the cost of supporting user growth, how quickly data centers pay off, the sustainability of funding channels, and whether regulators could restrict access to flagship products.
It is worth noting that in July, Republican Senators Tim Scott and Bill Hagerty introduced a bill to protect American information and communication technology supply chains. The initiative would allow the U.S. Department of Commerce to prohibit transactions involving technologies and services if they are developed, produced, or supplied by entities linked to high-risk countries and pose a threat to critical infrastructure, the digital economy, or national security.