Summary

  • The NFL has submitted an amicus brief endorsing New Jersey's appeal to the Supreme Court regarding a Third Circuit decision that exempted Kalshi's sports contracts from state gambling regulations.
  • The league expressed dissatisfaction with the CFTC and operators for not implementing requested protections, such as prohibiting easily manipulated bets and enforcing a minimum trading age of 21.
  • If the Supreme Court affirms the Third Circuit's ruling, the NFL plans to advocate for enhanced regulatory protections before the 2027 season.

The NFL has taken a definitive stance in the ongoing debate surrounding sports prediction markets, opposing Kalshi.

In an amicus brief submitted on Thursday, the league requested that the Supreme Court consider New Jersey's challenge to a Third Circuit ruling. This ruling determined that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC, thereby exempting them from state gambling legislation.

Myriad: Predict the winner of the World Series!

The NFL's position aligns with decisions made by the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, which have ruled contrary to the Third Circuit, creating a legal inconsistency that only the Supreme Court can address. Kalshi and its competitors, including Polymarket, have faced significant resistance from state regulators. (Disclosure: Decrypt's parent company Dastan runs Myriad, a prediction market that is not accessible to U.S. users.)

The league's brief supports the interpretation of Dodd-Frank, arguing that the definition of a swap pertains to instruments that hedge existing risks, not to bets that introduce new risks, thus asserting that sports contracts should fall under state gambling regulations.

In the brief, the NFL elaborated on its concerns, stating that it had urged the CFTC and operators like Kalshi to impose restrictions on contracts that could be easily manipulated, those based on injuries or officiating, or contracts with predictable outcomes, but these requests were ignored.

The NFL also pointed out that while most states mandate a minimum age of 21 for sports betting, Kalshi allows 18-year-olds to trade. Additionally, the CFTC has a limited workforce of only 543 employees, raising concerns over its capacity to regulate these markets effectively. The brief argues that without specific lists of prohibited bettors from the league, operators' policies against insider trading are ineffective.

According to the brief, NFL-related contracts accounted for $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets during the first Sunday of the season. The league, represented by former U.S. Attorney General William Barr, is seeking a ruling before the 2027 season.

However, the NFL is not advocating for the elimination of prediction markets. Should the Supreme Court rule in favor of the Third Circuit, the NFL intends to intensify its efforts to persuade the CFTC, market operators, and Congress to implement stronger integrity and consumer protections before the upcoming season.

Sports gaming attorney Daniel Wallach remarked that the brief "significantly enhances the likelihood of a cert grant" in a post on X.

"It's very revealing that the sports league most vocally in favor of federal regulation is essentially stating, 'this isn't sufficient.' An important amicus brief that significantly boosts the chances of a cert grant." https://t.co/URCMeYoZlb

— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) October 8, 2026

Wallach also noted that former CFTC and SEC Chair Gary Gensler and former Senator Christopher Dodd, who played pivotal roles in the Dodd-Frank legislation, submitted briefs supporting New Jersey's position.

In contrast, other sports leagues have adopted a more cooperative stance. In March, MLB designated Polymarket as its exclusive prediction market partner and entered an integrity agreement with the CFTC, while the NHL became the first major league to license its trademarks to prediction markets. Additionally, DraftKings and FanDuel have launched their own prediction markets.