Summary
- Pierre Lindh of NEXT.io emphasizes that prediction markets have not been adequately served by traditional journalism, noting the vast audience surpassing the current trading base.
- The inaugural NEXTPredict conference is scheduled for October 22–23 at Convene, Hudson Yards, New York City.
- Prominent media figures including Contessa Brewer from CNBC and Marshall Cohen from CNN will participate in the event.
Prediction markets are gaining traction in mainstream media, with their odds frequently featured on cable news, in news wires, and within equity research reports.
This growing interest is why NEXTPredict, taking place on October 22 and 23 at Convene in Hudson Yards, has prioritized the inclusion of active journalists in its agenda over the typical press room setup. Notable journalists like CNBC's Contessa Brewer and CNN's Marshall Cohen were confirmed for the program in August, coinciding with the midterm elections. The event's organizers anticipate over 50 speakers and around 2,500 attendees, aiming to broaden the appeal of prediction markets, according to Pierre Lindh, co-founder and managing director of NEXT.io.
Lindh remarked to PredictCentr that prediction market stories resonate as serious news for a wide audience, far exceeding the niche appeal of the iGaming industry he previously worked in, and claimed, "nobody was serving it with real journalistic standards."
The summit's agenda reflects this approach, with a significant portion of the main stage dedicated to topics that would attract national broadcasters, as Lindh noted, since "B2B panel content does not move a national desk." The media strategy has expanded from 50 press passes to between 100 and 200.
As the midterm elections dominate the conversation around prediction markets, Lindh acknowledged a tension, explaining, “the story that gets the summit on air is not the story delegates are paying to be in the room for, and both have to be true at the same time.”
Understanding the Market Dynamics
Despite the increasing media coverage, there is a notable disconnect between the visibility of prediction markets and the actual number of active users on these platforms.
Polymarket currently reports approximately 283,300 monthly active users, according to data from Token Terminal, a decline from its spring peak of over 750,000. Although user acquisition spikes during significant events, sustained participation levels do not match these peaks.
Kalshi, for instance, welcomed 3 million new users during the 2026 World Cup, with more than $1.2 billion traded on the tournament winner contract, setting a record for a single market. However, trading volumes on non-match days fell significantly. Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour explained to CNBC in July that, "Our volumes are where the news is at."
The retail investment influx is primarily coming from crypto traders rather than new entrants to the speculation arena. A survey by Langston Co. indicates that the proportion of crypto traders engaging with prediction markets has increased from 22% to 27%. Langston partner Tom Anderson noted that the short-term potential is more attractive than long-term conviction for many traders.
According to Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover, who spoke to CNBC this month, "Everyone will start referencing the data, and then people will start trading the data." The success of this transition hinges on the data's reliability, as Federal Reserve researchers have found that Kalshi's macroeconomic contracts align well with traditional forecasting benchmarks, outperforming the Bloomberg consensus on headline CPI.
However, the competition is intensifying. A recent analysis of $13.76 billion in Polymarket trades revealed that just 3% of accounts accounted for approximately 27% of profits, a share that Yale economist Theis Jensen anticipates will drop below 1% as institutional investors increasingly enter the market, creating a more competitive landscape.
Conference Highlights
NEXTPredict will feature two current CFTC directors, David Miller from enforcement and Duncan Hennes representing market participants, alongside industry leaders like Jason Robins, CEO of DraftKings, JB Mackenzie from Robinhood, and executives from Kalshi, Novig, Cboe, Myriad (owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan), and Blackstone. A dedicated session on insider trading, led by WilmerHale's Matthew Kulkin, will address significant industry concerns, with Lindh stating that it is the industry's most pressing issue: "This is going to be the sticking point and the most difficult point to resolve."
Additionally, the conference organizers have proactively hedged against potential disruptions, purchasing $3 million in coverage on Kalshi's flight cancellation market for a $12,000 premium, with Susquehanna acting as market maker. This trade will compensate for the event's costs if more than half of arrivals at JFK are canceled on October 21.
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