QCP has warned of pressure on digital gold due to Japan's debt issues and Trump's tariffs.
For the first time in history, the share of "new" whales in the realized capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency has surpassed that of long-term holders. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno.
Bitcoin's Control Has Changed Hands
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 21, 2026
“Market direction is now dictated by new whales. They hold the most realized capital, exhibit the highest turnover, and are the most emotionally and financially exposed to price volatility.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/2NEikAUL4b
The change in the Realized Cap metric indicates a shift in key players. Control of the market has moved from seasoned investors to capital that entered the asset late in the cycle.
"New" whales are defined as short-term holders with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. The shift in their favor suggests that a significant portion of the supply has changed hands at high prices.
The average purchase price for this group is around $98,000. With spot prices currently lower, "new" whales are facing a combined unrealized loss of $6 billion.
According to CryptoQuant, these newcomers are the primary source of selling pressure after the price peak. During downturns, investors sold coins, using short-term rebounds to close positions. This strategy indicates a focus on risk management over faith in long-term growth.
In contrast, "old" whales, with an average entry price of around $40,000, remain significantly profitable. They are not under pressure and do not significantly influence short-term dynamics.
Moreno emphasized that market direction is now dictated by new participants due to their sensitivity to volatility. Until the market absorbs their losing supply or capitulation occurs, the phase in digital gold will be one of distribution rather than accumulation.
Bitcoin Under Pressure
Markets have entered a "defensive mode" due to economic turmoil in Japan and political tensions, analysts at QCP Capital report.
Instead of acting as a hedge, the leading cryptocurrency is behaving like a risk asset, sensitive to interest rates and macroeconomic factors.
Attention is focused on the rise in yields of 10-year Japanese government bonds to 2.29%. This is the highest level since 1999 after decades of near-zero rates. The situation reveals Tokyo's fiscal problems:
- Government debt exceeds 240% of GDP;
- Total debt has reached ¥1342 trillion;
- By 2026, debt servicing could consume a quarter of budget expenditures.
The resilience of Japan's finances is in question, provoking volatility in global government bond markets.
US-EU Trade Conflict
Market pressure is intensified by escalating relations between Washington and Brussels. President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on eight countries opposing the transfer of Greenland to US control. The restrictions will take effect on February 1, with the rate increasing to 25% by June 1.
The European Parliament is already considering freezing the July trade deal with the US, jeopardizing trade worth up to $700 billion. Investors are assessing the risks: it remains unclear whether the White House is using tariffs as leverage or if this marks the beginning of a prolonged standoff.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Investor flight from risk has halted the rise of the leading cryptocurrency. The coin is correlating with the US stock market, which has seen a decline of over 2%.
According to QCP, until clear political signals emerge, the market will remain in a "reactive mode." Investors are currently focused on capital preservation and are monitoring whether the current issues escalate into a systemic crisis.
As a reminder, on January 20, the price of the leading cryptocurrency dropped below $88,000 amid a stock market crash.