Morgan Stanley has boosted its forecast for humanoid robot shipments from China to 50,000 units by 2026, driven by local production plans and government support.
Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its forecast for humanoid robot shipments from China, now estimating 50,000 units for 2026, up from a previous estimate of 28,000, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
This revision follows an earlier adjustment in January 2026, when the bank had already increased its estimate from 14,000 units.
The surge in projections is attributed to a growing number of Chinese firms, including Xpeng, announcing plans for large-scale production by year’s end. Additionally, the confirmed commercial viability of these robots, government support, and shifts in supply chains are also contributing factors.
Morgan Stanley anticipates that the proportion of full-sized humanoid robots will increase from 30% in 2026 to 50% in 2027 and reach 70% by 2028.
The bank highlights that China's rapid advancements are driven by competitive local developers, government initiatives, and extensive deployments aimed at collecting data to refine robot capabilities and accelerate commercialization.
Furthermore, the South China Morning Post reported that Beijing has initiated a nationwide training program focused on transitioning from demonstrations to practical applications of robots in industries such as manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare.
In related developments, Midea Group unveiled the MIRO U, a six-armed industrial robot set to be deployed in a washing machine factory in Wuxi in December 2025. Meanwhile, in June 2026, Alibaba launched a comprehensive AI model suite designed for robotic tasks in physical settings, branding it as a "full stack for embodied artificial intelligence."
