PolicyMidterm Elections Loom: Implications for the Crypto Sector

With Congress on a break before the midterm elections, it's time to reflect on the upcoming changes in November.

By Nikhilesh DeOct 4, 2026, 2:30 p.m. EDT3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on U.S. Capitol Building (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

The upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. are set for November 3. The outcome will decide whether Republicans or Democrats will take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, impacting the future landscape for the crypto industry and beyond.

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30 days out

The narrative

As the midterm election approaches on Nov. 3, 2026, recent polling indicates that Democrats may gain control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains uncertain.

Why it matters

The crypto sector is keenly observing potential actions from federal regulators following the collapse of last month's Clarity Act, but Congress will still hold significant influence next year. Lawmakers are increasingly focusing on crypto tax regulations, which may lead to upcoming hearings.

Breaking it down

With just a month left until the election, current polling and recent reports suggest a favorable trend for Democrats. A consensus poll from 270towin indicates that Democrats are likely to take the House of Representatives, though the Senate's future is less clear.

Prediction market data from Kalshi shows that bettors expect Democrats to take both the House and the Senate, a sentiment echoed by Polymarket.

The stakes are high: the next Congress will influence regulatory oversight, the potential for new crypto legislation, and the requirements for crypto firms to engage with the major parties.

While various regulatory bodies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Treasury Department, will be drafting rules, Congress remains crucial in supervising these agencies. The Clarity Act aimed to clarify how these regulators could interact with the crypto sector, and Congress will also need to approve their budgets for the upcoming year.

Additionally, Congress may consider new market structure legislation, though its outcome is uncertain. However, progress on crypto tax legislation seems more assured. The House Ways and Means Committee recently passed a bipartisan crypto tax bill, and Senator Steve Daines introduced a similar measure in the Senate last week.

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Concerns have arisen that a Democrat-controlled Congress might aggressively investigate crypto companies linked to former President Donald Trump due to worries over his business connections with the crypto industry.

In terms of political engagement, the crypto sector's involvement in the election has been relatively low-key. The Fairshake Super PAC, supported by various industry firms, and the Digital Freedom Fund, primarily backed by Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, have disclosed spending of $30 million and $3 million, respectively, targeting former Senator Sherrod Brown.

However, there are no further expenditures planned at this time according to Fairshake. As the election date draws nearer, costs for last-minute advertising may rise.

This week

This week

  • Congress is currently out of session.

If you have any suggestions or questions regarding next week’s discussion topics or any other feedback, feel free to reach out via email at nik@coindesk.com or connect with me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

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See you next week!

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