Analysts: MiCA Has Not Caused Significant Global Outflow from USDT

Recent regulatory changes in Europe regarding USDT have not led to a notable global exodus from the largest stablecoin. This conclusion is supported by data from Artemis Analytics, as reported by Cointelegraph, alongside an independent study conducted by economists from LUISS University and the University of Surrey.

According to Alex Wesley from Artemis, the new European regulations have not resulted in a significant reduction in USDT supply or a large-scale liquidity shift across blockchains and trading platforms.

"The data does not indicate a significant change in the supply or demand for USDT that could be directly linked to the implementation of MiCA in Europe. The regulation has not caused a major migration between platforms or networks," he stated.

The findings from Artemis are corroborated by the research of Nikola Borri from LUISS University and Kirill Shakhnov from the University of Surrey. They analyzed the impact of USDT restrictions on European exchanges and concluded that while MiCA altered trading dynamics on specific regulated platforms, it had minimal effect on the overall market shares and trading volumes of the largest stablecoins.

European Exchanges Shift to USDC

On exchanges targeting the regulated European market, the impact has been noticeable. Following the restrictions on USDT, the share of USDC increased by 0.82 standard deviations compared to the pre-regulation period, while the trading volume ratio of Circle's stablecoin to its competitor rose by 0.54 standard deviations.

The authors of the study attributed this outcome primarily to the decline in USDT trading on platforms where the token was removed or restricted for European clients. However, they found no comparable redistribution on a global scale.

"Overall market shares and trading volumes have hardly changed," the study noted.

This allows for a distinction between two effects of MiCA: while regulation has influenced asset choice within European regulated services, it has not yet led to a similar change in the global market structure.

USDT Retains Dominance

Further market data also do not indicate a sharp decline in USDT's role following the end of the MiCA transition period. As of July 31, approximately 183.46 billion USDT were in circulation, with a market capitalization of around $183.27 billion, according to historical data from CoinMarketCap.

Independent analysis from Stablecoin Beat estimated Tether's share of the total stablecoin supply at 61.2% by the end of July. The entire market shrank by about 1.2% during the month, indicating that the slight decline in USDT supply was not isolated.

While these figures alone do not measure user demand in all its forms, they do not suggest a global outflow from USDT following the tightening of European regulations. Even before the end of the transition period, data from Dune indicated that USDT and USDC together constituted around 83% of the global stablecoin market, with USDT remaining the leading asset in the segment.

Growing Activity Outside Europe

Artemis noted that on-chain activity involving USDT continues to expand in regions outside the EU. According to the firm, the number of daily users on BNB Chain surged from approximately 318,000 in June 2024 to 1.56 million by July 2026.

In the same timeframe, the figure for Tron increased by 44%, reaching around 908,000 daily users. Wesley believes that this trend reflects the growing use of digital dollars in global and emerging markets rather than a direct migration of users from Europe.

"There is no clear break in the on-chain data that coincides with MiCA," he remarked.

USDT's continued capital dominance does not equate to supremacy across all metrics. In June, the adjusted volume of stablecoin transfers hit a record $1.79 trillion, of which about $1.21 trillion, or 67%, was attributed to USDC, while USDT accounted for approximately $576 billion, or 32%.

Journalists explained the resilience of dollar-pegged tokens outside the EU as partly due to the expansion of use cases not directly tied to crypto trading. They highlighted Argentina as an example, where the local platform Lemon processed transactions worth $9.3 billion in 2025, representing a 60% increase from the previous year.

The number of users conducting transactions rose by 70%, nearing 1.8 million, while the volume of transactions involving stablecoins increased by 45%. Lemon representative Ignacio Jimenez noted that digital dollars are increasingly used not just as a means of value preservation.

"We are witnessing a shift from 'stablecoins' as a savings tool to 'stablecoins' as financial infrastructure," he stated.

According to him, the demand is increasingly driven by payments, cross-border transfers, and remittances from abroad.

Within Europe, however, the impact of regulation remains significant. The transition period for crypto platforms under MiCA concluded on July 1. Tether opted not to seek European authorization for USDT, leading several regulated services to restrict access to the asset.

For insights into what lies ahead for the market following the transition to MiCA, refer to our separate article.