Bitcoin recently dipped below its 200-week moving average on two occasions in the last fortnight, a rare incident that Kraken identifies as a historically advantageous entry point for investors.
By Omkar GodboleUpdated Jun 18, 2026, 5:15 a.m. Published Jun 18, 2026, 5:08 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShow- According to Kraken, Bitcoin's temporary declines below its 200-week average have historically resulted in median returns greater than 100% over the following year.
- The experience of holding through these periods has generally been manageable.
Bitcoin BTC$63,916.09 has recently been hovering around a level that has historically served as a near-ideal entry point for bullish investors, leading to substantial returns, as noted by Kraken's Chief Economist, Thomas Perfumo, in a statement to CoinDesk.
This critical level is defined by the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which reflects the average price of the asset over that timeframe, helping traders discern the long-term trend while minimizing daily fluctuations.
In the past fortnight, BTC has dipped below its 200-week SMA on two occasions, recovering to above this threshold by the end of each week. As of now, bitcoin is priced at $63,900, slightly above the 200-week SMA of $62,358.
This is significant because, according to Perfumo, instances of closing below this level have been infrequent, occurring on roughly 10% of trading days since mid-2017, and have historically indicated particularly favorable entry points for investors.
"Historically, those who purchased at this level have typically experienced median returns exceeding 113% in the subsequent year and 313% over a two-year span," Perfumo stated in an email.
The term median implies that if all instances of purchasing BTC below the 200-week SMA were arranged according to their returns, the 113% return would represent the middle value. This means that half of those buyers achieved returns higher than this figure, while the remainder saw lower returns. This contrasts with a simple average return, which can be skewed by a few extreme gains or losses.
Moreover, the outlook is even more favorable. Not only have purchases made below the 200-week average led to significant gains over one- and two-year periods, but the discomfort of holding through those times has been relatively minor.
"For individuals who bought below the 200-week MA, the median time required to break even on their investment has only been two days, and the median maximum drawdown over the following year has been a mere 9%," Perfumo noted.
However, he cautioned that "past performance does not ensure future results. Nonetheless, the historical data strongly suggests that bitcoin tends to offer substantial value at these levels."
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CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
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In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
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