Your day-ahead look for July 20, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 20, 2026, 11:15 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Bitcoin volatility may be set to surge, price poised to slide if history is a guide. (TradingView)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Traders should be vigilant regarding the possibility of a bitcoin "volmageddon," indicating a surge in volatility that often precedes price drops for bitcoin BTC$64,974.36.
This caution stems from the trends observed in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, known as BVIV. This gauge, often compared to Wall Street's VIX, reflects the demand for options—financial instruments that traders utilize to safeguard against abrupt market fluctuations. Typically, a rise in demand for these contracts correlates with an increase in implied volatility.
Currently, the index is fluctuating between 34% and 38%, a range that has historically been followed by spikes in volatility and subsequent price declines (see Today’s signal, below). For example, the index entered this range in late May, leading to a price drop from $74,000 to below $60,000 in under a week, alongside a rise in the BVIV. A similar trend was observed prior to the early February crash and during the correction that followed the October record highs.
Although historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, volatility metrics are known for reverting to their mean. This cyclical behavior indicates that periods of lower-than-average volatility are generally followed by increased turbulence, while periods of higher volatility can lead to market stabilization.
At present, the index is trading below both its 30-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Essentially, this indicates that volatility is currently "cheap" and is situated at a historically dependable support level, implying that an increase is likely, which could trigger another round of market turbulence.
Bitcoin is currently trading just above $64,000, maintaining a price range that has been stable since last Wednesday. While some analysts have pointed out two consecutive weeks of inflows into spot ETFs, this new capital is minimal compared to the billions that were withdrawn from the market during the preceding eight-week outflow period.
In the traditional markets, global volatility indicators are sending mixed signals. The KOSPI VIX in South Korea has surged above 70%, marking its highest point since the 1990s. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s VIX increased over 12% to reach 18% on Friday, where it remains. However, these levels have been consistent for months, suggesting that stock markets are not in a state of panic.
Additionally, the MOVE index, which measures the 30-day volatility of U.S. Treasury notes and influences global finance, has remained steady around 70% since April, providing a positive signal for risk assets. Stay alert!
Read more: For insights on today’s altcoins and derivatives activities, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a detailed list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Moonshot AI IPO push follows Kimi, Alibaba AI releases that shook bitcoin (CoinDesk): Moonshot AI is gearing up for an IPO within six months, looking to tap capital markets shortly after its Kimi K3 model altered perceptions of China’s AI capabilities.
- Oil prices erase gains after Iran says U.S. talks could be pursued based on national interests (CNBC): Oil prices fluctuated on Monday, erasing previous gains after Iran indicated that negotiations with the U.S. could be considered based on national interests. Brent crude stood at $88.14 while West Texas Intermediate was at $82.08.
- U.S. strikes Iran for ninth day; Iran says two oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz exploded and immobilised (Reuters): U.S. forces continued strikes on Iran for the ninth consecutive day on Monday as concerns arose over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran reported that two oil tankers had exploded and been immobilized.
- Amazon Japan supplier AZ-Com Maruwa to adopt yen stablecoin JPYC for payments (CoinDesk): AZ-COM Maruwa Holdings (9090), a distributor serving Amazon Japan, plans to utilize the yen stablecoin JPYC for transactions with its network of about 2,300 partners, including subcontractors and truck drivers.
Today’s signal
BVIV vs bitcoin's price. (TradingView)The chart illustrates the price movements of bitcoin (blue line) alongside the variations in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) in candlestick format.
Historically, BVIV has formed a support range within the 34%–38% zone, and each descent into this area has typically preceded new episodes of market turbulence and declines in bitcoin prices.
Currently, BVIV is hovering around 38%, nearing the upper limit of that range.
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CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 13, 2026CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
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