While monetary policy is anticipated to remain stable, attention is on how the new chairman will alter the U.S. central bank's communication style.
By Helene Braun|Edited by Stephen Alpher Jun 17, 2026, 1:58 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)SummaryShow- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rates steady during its meeting today, the first under Chairman Kevin Warsh.
- Market analysts predict Warsh will adopt a more hawkish approach, eliminating language that suggests future rate cuts and taking a firmer stance on inflation risks, despite expectations for steady rates until the end of the year.
Chairman Kevin Warsh is presiding over the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, which wraps up this afternoon. Investors are more interested in how he will shift the central bank's communication strategy rather than the interest-rate decision itself.
Market consensus is that the Fed will maintain its benchmark fed funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.
However, Bank of America predicts that Warsh and his colleagues will adopt a more hawkish tone, reflecting unexpectedly strong economic data and ongoing inflation concerns.
The bank anticipates that officials will remove any mention of a bias toward future rate cuts and will revise their assessment of the job market following recent payrolls that exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, the market is already pricing in a significant likelihood of one or more rate hikes this year.
Yet, the central narrative may be about Warsh himself.
For years, Warsh has contended that the Fed has become overly dependent on forecasts and forward guidance. As noted in a Wall Street Journal profile from Sunday, Warsh advised the central bank last year: "Stop talking so much. More thinking, less talking."
This perspective could shape the discussions at Wednesday's meeting. Bank of America suggested that Warsh might choose not to provide his own projections for the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), underscoring his long-standing critique of the Fed's forecasting methods.
"If you're not very good at something, you should do less of it," Warsh said at a State Street conference last year, according to the Journal. "These forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn't be perfect either, so I wouldn't give them."
The SEP's "dot plot," which illustrates policymakers' expectations for interest rate movements, has become a key element of Fed communication. Bank of America, aligning with market sentiment, expects this week's projections to indicate no change in rates through 2026, followed by modest reductions in 2027 and 2028.
The investment bank also predicts that officials will recognize increasing inflation risks while indicating less willingness to overlook price fluctuations compared to previous years.
Warsh's inaugural press conference as chair is expected to be closely monitored. Bank of America believes he will adopt a patient demeanor, suggesting that recent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical issues, such as the Iran conflict, may be temporary, while avoiding any hints of imminent rate cuts.
Market participants are divided over whether Warsh will be more dovish or hawkish than his predecessor, Jerome Powell. Bank of America identifies this uncertainty as a significant risk for investors.
A chair who appears more hawkish than anticipated could bolster the dollar while putting pressure on stocks and bonds. Additionally, a key question remains whether Warsh will utilize this initial meeting to initiate a broader transformation in how the Fed communicates with the market after years of heightened transparency.
Bitcoin BTC$65,209.12, down about 25% year-to-date, has declined since Warsh's appointment on May 22nd, as the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to overshadow domestic economic policies.
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CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
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