The prediction platform Kalshi has canceled a bet concerning Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. CEO Tarek Mansour promised to refund users, but many have reported losses.
Trading on the Kalshi market was suspended following reports of Khamenei's death. According to the platform, betting on this outcome was available since November 2025.
Mansour posted a message on X explaining the platform's position and the rules regarding the cancellation of trades.
On Khamenei:
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 1, 2026
We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.
I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these…
"We do not list markets directly related to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we create rules to prevent profiting from such outcomes. That is what we did in this case," said Kalshi's CEO.
He noted that the market related to the resignation of Iran's leader was "important" from both economic and political perspectives, and that his departure might not be linked to violent methods. He cited the example of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
"In such cases, we clearly state this in the rules and on the market page, but today has been a good lesson showing that we can do more to improve user experience and add new ways to display rules. We are committed to improving," Mansour added.
According to the compensation terms, the platform committed to refunding all fees, and positions opened before the news of Khamenei's death would be rolled back to the last trading price.
"No user will lose a dollar on this market," assured Kalshi's CEO.
Something Went Wrong
Despite Mansour's statements, many users complained about losses on their positions or incomplete compensation. Under the CEO's post on X, a rebuttal window appeared from the community.
"This is a lie. Many users reported losing money on winning trades," the rebuttal stated.
A user under the pseudonym Sameer shared a screenshot showing a winning position made at a 6% probability, closed with a compensation of $245 on an initial investment of $1,034. Had the outcome been counted, the payout would have exceeded $12,000.
Deceiving your customers, then calling them “users”, and next lying on Twitter is going to be fun in court @mansourtarek_ @Kalshi @CFTC @SECGov @RealBenGeller pic.twitter.com/FBeDlSxv2V
— Sameer (@sameeriously) March 1, 2026
"Deceiving your customers, calling them 'users', and then lying on social media will be fun in court," the user wrote.
Other Kalshi users reported similar situations, with only the amounts of losses and details of the bets differing.
Liar. You’re getting sued. pic.twitter.com/4VO5pEB0Bd
— Zander Pyle (@Alexander_333_) March 1, 2026
Representatives of the prediction platform have not yet provided additional comments regarding the compensation issues.
One trader reached out to the SEC and CFTC requesting an investigation, noting that at the time the market was posted, the cancellation conditions were not specified anywhere.
In contrast to the ethical reasons for the closure, a user named jellyman recalled a bet regarding the attendance of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter at Donald Trump's inauguration.
"[You kept the market] even after his passing. You knew people were betting on the death of a 99-year-old man [...]. You accept death, but not when it doesn't bring you money," he wrote to Kalshi's management.
Record Volumes
According to defioasis, on the day of the strike on Iran, February 28, the daily trading volume on Polymarket reached a historic high of $478 million.
On the day of the U.S. strike on Iran, Polymarket's daily trading volume hit a record high of $478 million
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) March 1, 2026
Of this, the political sector accounted for $220 million, also a record, making up 46.2% of Polymarket's total nominal trading volume
Additionally, Polymarket Builders also reached a new daily trading volume high at this historic juncture pic.twitter.com/KnKmWO3vAn
Of this, the political sector accounted for $220 million (46.2% of the total), also a record. The Polymarket Builders automation ecosystem also recorded peak values.
Meanwhile, analysts at Bubblemaps discovered six potential insider wallets that placed bets on the strike against Iran, collectively earning over $1.2 million.
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran
— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) February 28, 2026
Most of these wallets:
• were funded in the last 24h
• specifically bet for February 28
• bought "yes" hours before the strike pic.twitter.com/n3G6OIEOXt
It is worth noting that in February, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin expressed concern about the current state of prediction markets. He believes that the growing dependence on uninformed speculators threatens the sector's viability.