The decline in Bitcoin's price at the beginning of February, following a test of $60,000, suggests we may be at the midpoint of a bear market, according to Kaiko.

Analysts noted that the 32% correction marked the most significant drop since the last halving in April 2024.

“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative token dynamics indicates that the market is approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle remains intact,” they added.

Source: Kaiko.

The company's specialists highlighted several signals confirming the bear market phase:

  • A 30% drop in the total spot trading volume on the top 10 centralized exchanges, from approximately $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November;
  • A decrease in open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week.

They also pointed out a rise in the share of stablecoins, with a net inflow of about $22 billion over the last three weeks. Historically, capital tends to accumulate in pegged tokens during downturns and returns to riskier assets during recoveries.

Source: Kaiko.

Analysts compared the current situation to the market downturn in 2022, when the dominance of stablecoins peaked at 11.5%, followed by a reversal as cryptocurrencies hit bottom in the fourth quarter.

“The current level of 10.3% suggests we are nearing a maximum defensive position, but we may not have reached it yet. A key signal to watch for is the stabilization or decline in stablecoin dominance, which would indicate the beginning of capital redistribution as a prerequisite for sustainable recovery,” experts stated.

Is $60,000 the Bottom of the Bear Market?

Kaiko noted that Bitcoin's 52% correction from its all-time high has been “unusually shallow.” A drop of 60-68% would align more closely with historical trends, suggesting a bottom around $40,000-50,000.

Sean Yang, chief analyst at MEXC Research, commented to Cointelegraph that the leading cryptocurrency has returned to its historical four-year cycle associated with halvings. However, he believes it's difficult to determine the depth of the current bear market since “many catalysts that fueled the rally to $126,000 are still in play.”

“Given the emergence of oversold indicators across multiple timeframes, discussions about Bitcoin's recovery are more a matter of time than probability,” Yang added.

The $60,000 level roughly coincides with Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, which has historically served as strong long-term support, noted Nansen analyst Nikolai Sondergaard. He stated that in the absence of cryptocurrency-specific catalysts, market volatility is likely to continue.

“Still, it is very difficult to say whether this indicates a return to the traditional four-year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures express this idea, but at the same time, several others do not agree,” the analyst said.

It’s worth noting that experts are divided on whether Ethereum has reached its price bottom in the current bear market.