In recent days, the volume of short positions in Bitcoin via ETFs surged by 22% to 9,012 BTC. Such levels have only been recorded twice in history, noted analysts from K33.
Bitcoin short position ETFs from ProShares (BITI and SBIT). Source: K33.
Vetle Lunde, head of research at the firm, pointed out that the current situation aligns with typical stages of bottom formation, where the market is saturated with bearish positions. This is also suggested by the persistence of negative funding rates.
Annualized 30-day funding rates and the duration of negative rates in days. Source: K33.
“The average annualized 30-day funding rates have remained negative for 32 consecutive days. In another two weeks, this period may exceed the duration of the negative rates observed from November to December 2022,” he noted.
Other on-chain data also indicate an approach to a cyclical minimum. According to CryptoQuant, the gap between the spot and realized price of Bitcoin has narrowed from 120% at the end of 2024 to the current 21%. The asset needs to drop another approximately 20% to reach the accumulation zone, where bottoms have historically formed.
Low Liquidity Ahead of Holidays
K33 stated that Bitcoin traders are showing "aggressive caution." This pressure is driven by weak price dynamics, uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Iran, new warnings about quantum threats, and the approach of Easter—a time of low liquidity.
A series of holidays in many countries leads to decreased trading volumes and volatility, as traditional markets are closed. This also affects cryptocurrencies, Lunde emphasized.
According to him, since 2019, weekly trading volumes of Bitcoin during Easter weeks have consistently been below the annual average. A similar trend is seen in volatility, which also systematically lags behind average annual values during these periods.
Bitcoin trading volumes during Easter compared to the annual average. Source: K33.
At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $68,600. The recently concluded first quarter of 2026 was the worst for the asset in the last eight years.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
It is worth noting that analysts at Fidelity described Bitcoin's 52% drop from its all-time high as a sign of market maturation.