Bitcoin's drop to $60,000 may have marked a local bottom. Analysts at K33 Research have identified signs of investor capitulation across the spot market, the ETF sector, and derivatives.

Vetle Lunde, head of research, pointed out several market anomalies:

  • Trading volumes reached the 95th percentile (among the highest levels);
  • Funding rates plummeted to levels seen during the banking crisis in March 2023;
  • The options market skew returned to bearish 2022 levels.

Momentum indicators also signal extreme oversold conditions. Following prolonged selling since January 20, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 15.9, marking the sixth lowest reading since 2015—lower values were only recorded during market crashes in March 2020 and November 2018.

The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 6 points during the sell-off, the second lowest in history. This highlights the depth of investor pessimism as Bitcoin approached the $60,000 mark.

Lunde noted that historically, such episodes have coincided with cyclical lows, supporting the hypothesis that the recent correction has established a local bottom.

“Hyperactive Trading” and Pressure on Derivatives

The price movements were accompanied by “hyperactive trading,” Lunde noted. By February 6, the two-day spot trading volume for digital gold reached $32 billion—one of the highest figures on record.

Trading levels on February 5 and 6 remained in the 95th percentile. According to the report, similar trading intensity has only been observed once in the past five years—during the FTX exchange collapse.

The analyst pointed out that such spikes often indicate the passing of local extremes, typically followed by a period of consolidation and retesting of lows.

In the derivatives market, tension remains. On February 6, the annual funding rate for perpetual Bitcoin swaps fell to -15.46%, the lowest since the March 2023 banking crisis. The weekly average dropped to -3.5%, setting a new record low since September 2024.

The options market skew shifted into the “extremely protective zone.” According to Lunde, similar values were previously recorded only during the Terra collapse, 3AC liquidation, and the FTX bankruptcy.

Record activity was also seen in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On February 5, the trading volume of IBIT exceeded $10 billion, setting a historical high.

However, on the same day, the funds faced the fifth largest net outflow since their inception. Despite inflows in the following days, a total of 13,670 BTC was withdrawn from products since February 3.

K33 anticipates a prolonged price consolidation in the $60,000–$75,000 range.

Experts also predict a decrease in trading activity and allow for a retest of support but see no fundamental reasons for prices to drop below the local minimum.

Notably, analysts at Glassnode described the recent decline of the first cryptocurrency as “moderate.”