This will occur after the conclusion of legal proceedings related to the Bitfinex hack.
The positive trend of the LEO coin indicates that the legal process surrounding the Bitfinex hack is nearing its end. As a result, the US Bitcoin reserves could lose about 30% of their volume, stated Vetle Lunde, a leading analyst at K33 Research.
Source: X.According to the expert, the asset's growth hints at interactions with the frozen Bitcoins from the trading platform.
This concerns 94,643 BTC, seized from hacker Ilya Lichtenstein's wallet. In November 2024, a US court sentenced the hacker to five years in prison for laundering the stolen funds. His wife, Heather Morgan, received 18 months in prison for her role in the criminal operations. Both pleaded guilty and agreed to return the stolen assets.
In January 2025, US prosecutors filed a request in court to allow the return of nearly 80% of the 119,754 BTC to the exchange.
“Previously, Bitfinex stated that after receiving the coins, it intends to allocate 80% of the returned funds for buying and burning LEO over the next 18 months,” noted Lunde.
He added that the value of LEO is driven by two main factors: ongoing buybacks funded by trading revenues on Bitfinex and the anticipated future burn.
According to the analyst's calculations, the fair value of the exchange's token should be around $5 billion (assuming a Bitcoin price of $65,000). However, it currently stands at approximately $8 billion—60% above the target value.
Will the Reserves Have to Be Returned?
Currently, the 94,643 BTC belonging to Bitfinex account for about 30% of the strategic Bitcoin reserves of the United States, Lunde pointed out. The total reserves held by US authorities amount to 328,372 BTC.
Source: X.The analyst clarified that the law regarding crypto reserves includes a provision for returning assets to identifiable victims.
According to Lunde, the Bitfinex coins fall under this category. In October 2024, the exchange was recognized as the sole victim in the incident.
“Under US asset forfeiture law, third parties must be given the opportunity to assert their ownership rights before funds are distributed. This has led to additional litigation, where former Bitfinex users and the corporate structure itself dispute the ownership of the coins,” the expert added.
Some claimants assert they are direct victims and should receive Bitcoins individually. According to Bitfinex, many of these claims relate to the withdrawal of funds from accounts after the hack, rather than specific ownership rights to the stolen coins. Until this matter is resolved, the coins remain frozen.
Recall that in December, Lichtenstein released a video from prison, claiming he planned and executed the Bitfinex hack alone.