The first cryptocurrency has lost 28% over the past month, dropping from $82,000 to below $60,000. According to analysts at K33, over 10 million BTC—more than 50% of the total circulating supply—are currently at a loss.
A month ago, the share of "red" coins was only 30%. K33's head of research, Vetle Lunde, explained that a significant percentage of older coins remain inactive. This is due to lost wallets or owners' reluctance to sell their assets. In previous bear cycles, the ceiling for unprofitable supply ranged from 50% to 56%.
Source: K33.A similar situation was observed in 2011, 2018, and 2022. In those years, Bitcoin reached its bottom within a month after breaking below the 50% mark. However, this was preceded by a final drop of 15% to 26%. A year after these events, the price increased by between 69% and 359%.
The current decline has brought the price back to the 200-week moving average. K33 views this level as a marker for the end of major bear cycles. The relative strength index for Bitcoin has reached its lowest point since November 2018. Outflows from exchange-traded products averaged 4,108 BTC per day from May 7 to June 8. The fear and greed index has plummeted to 8.
Lunde noted a shift in sentiment and a capital flow into AI stocks, Big Tech, and the potential IPO of SpaceX. Moreover, the current downturn is shorter and less severe than in previous cycles, aligning with a trend of decreasing volatility.
Analysts reaffirmed their core forecast: the level around $60,000 serves as a cyclical bottom or a highly attractive zone for long-term accumulation.
It is worth noting that on June 9, analysts at Wintermute pointed to weak capital inflows into Bitcoin.