Arthur Hayes anticipates a Bitcoin rally amid rising dollar liquidity.
By 2026, capital inflows into cryptocurrencies are expected to continue growing, primarily driven by institutional investors, according to analysts at The Block citing JPMorgan.
Experts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou predict that inflows will reach a record $130 billion in 2025, a 30% increase from 2024.
The passage of the Clarity Act in the U.S. will play a crucial role. Clear regulations are expected to stimulate activity in venture financing, mergers, and acquisitions, with a revival anticipated in the sectors of stablecoins, payments, infrastructure, and custodial solutions.
2025 Year in Review
The previous year was marked by retail investors. Growth was fueled by inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as well as purchases by firms using digital assets as reserves (DAT). In contrast, hedge fund activity through CME futures significantly declined compared to 2024.
DAT companies accounted for over half of all inflows—around $68 billion. Of this, $23 billion came from Strategy (up from $22 billion the previous year). Other market participants invested $45 billion in digital assets, a substantial increase from $8 billion in the prior period.
However, this trend slowed down starting in October, with major holders like Strategy and BitMine reducing their purchasing volumes by year-end.
Venture Market and Forecasts
Venture financing saw a slight increase, but the sector has not returned to the peaks of 2021-2022. Investors redirected capital initially intended for startups into more liquid DAT strategies, leading to a decline in the total number of deals.
Analysts noted that the period of risk reduction has ended. The reduction of positions by investors at the end of 2025 is behind us, and the market is showing signs of stabilizing ETF flows and other indicators.
Hayes' Forecast
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes published an essay analyzing the reasons behind Bitcoin's weak performance in 2025 amid rising gold prices and tech stocks. He believes the situation will change in 2026 due to a "forced injection" of dollar liquidity into the U.S. economy.
"Frowny Cloud" is a chart study of $BTC, gold, and stonks in 2025, and a prediction on how dollar liquidity will expand this year and send $BTC to Valhalla.https://t.co/UvagTQl219 pic.twitter.com/nj5ja6DEmi
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 15, 2026
Hayes noted that Bitcoin, being dependent on monetary expansion, reacted to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction as expected. However, gold experienced historic growth despite declining liquidity.
The rally in the precious metal was driven by central bank actions. Regulators are aggressively purchasing physical gold, moving away from U.S. Treasury bonds. Hayes linked this to sovereign nations' fears of having their assets blocked, as seen with Russia's reserves in 2022.
"Central banks are insensitive to price quotes. If the U.S. president can seize your money, its value drops to zero instantly. In such conditions, the purchase price of gold is irrelevant if it mitigates counterparty risk," he wrote.
The rise of the Nasdaq, particularly among AI sector companies, Hayes attributed to the effective "nationalization" of the industry.
Following Donald Trump's campaign platform, U.S. authorities are directing capital into AI to maintain technological leadership over China. This creates a scenario where the tech sector receives funding regardless of actual profitability or overall credit market conditions. Such government support has allowed stocks to lose correlation with declining dollar liquidity.
2026 Forecast: Liquidity Returns
The founder of Maelstrom believes that dollar liquidity will begin to grow aggressively in 2026 for three reasons:
- Increase in the Fed's balance sheet. The quantitative tightening program is over. A new reserve management mechanism will ensure a flow of money to finance government debt.
- Bank lending. Commercial financial institutions will start lending more actively to "strategic sectors" and the defense industry under government guarantees, creating new money in the system.
- Real estate market. The government will utilize the balances of mortgage agencies to buy securities and lower rates to stimulate the economy.
Investment Strategy
Hayes believes that with the influx of liquidity, Bitcoin will resume its upward trajectory. For bullish plays, he has chosen shares of DAT companies Strategy and Metaplanet.
According to his calculations, the ratio of the value of these stocks to the Bitcoin they hold is currently at a two-year low. He expects that as the price of digital gold returns to $110,000, these stocks will outperform due to built-in leverage.
Additionally, the Maelstrom fund continues to increase its position in Zcash, viewing the departure of developers from ECC as a positive signal for the development of commercial products based on the coin.
As a reminder, Glassnode reported that institutional investors have resumed Bitcoin purchases amid the risk of explosive volatility.