The world's largest bank, JPMorgan, is contemplating a move into prediction markets. This was stated by the company's CEO, Jamie Dimon, in an interview with CBS.
"Perhaps one day we will do something like that. But there are things we definitely will not do. And, of course, we have strict rules regarding insider information," he said.
Previously, similar ambitions were expressed by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. During a January earnings report, he mentioned that the organization is actively exploring this area:
"Personally, I have met with the leadership of two major prediction companies in recent weeks, spending several hours with them to learn more. We have a team studying this direction."
Rapid Growth of the Sector
Prediction markets continue to expand. Two platforms dominate the segment: Polymarket and Kalshi. As of March, their combined trading volume reached $23.2 billion—an all-time high.
These leaders are also attracting increasing funding. In March, Kalshi secured $1 billion, raising its valuation to $22 billion. Polymarket is preparing for a similar move to boost its market value from $9 billion to $20 billion.
Meanwhile, competition is intensifying. The third place in trading volume is held by the Opinion platform, supported by YZi Labs, which launched in October 2025. Players from the crypto industry are also actively entering the prediction market: Coinbase, Crypto.com, Magic Eden, and Galaxy.
Regulatory Risks
Despite rapid development, regulation remains a key uncertainty factor. The legal status of prediction markets in the U.S. is still being established. Currently, such platforms are banned at the state level.
The CFTC is taking steps to create a regulatory framework for the sector. In March, the agency published a preliminary notice on proposed regulations, inviting public discussion on rules for prediction markets.
Last week, the regulator also established a Targeted Innovation Group to develop standards in AI, cryptocurrency, and prediction markets. Participants will coordinate with other federal agencies, including the SEC.
In an interview with Dastan, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig urged officials to establish clear rules for the sector promptly. He warned that otherwise, many companies would move offshore, and investors would face an "illusion" similar to the scenario of FTX.
My full interview with @ChairmanSelig of the CFTC.
— Farokh (@farokh) April 1, 2026
We spoke about the Chairman's upbringing, his time at the SEC and now the CFTC, crypto and prediction markets.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Background & discovering crypto
06:57 — Fighting the SEC before joining them
16:13 — Why the… pic.twitter.com/GpGh1D0iRW
"The situation with FTX and other crypto firm collapses is right before us. I fear we will witness a repeat of this scenario in prediction markets if we continue to push them into an offshore, unregulated environment," Selig said.
He insists on the registration of platforms in the U.S. and the implementation of protective mechanisms for market participants.
Recall that in February, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned against turning prediction platforms into casinos.