The market capitalization of the stablecoin sector could reach $1.15 trillion in the next five years, leading to a gradual outflow of deposits from traditional banks. This was stated by analysts at Jefferies, as reported by CoinDesk.

They noted that the rapid development of this segment is putting pressure on the profits of conventional financial institutions. While digital dollars are unlikely to trigger a sudden withdrawal of funds, banks could lose between 3% and 5% of their core deposits over five years. This will inevitably increase funding costs and reduce their business margins.

“The medium-term risk of a gradual deposit outflow due to new income opportunities and payment scenarios should not be ignored,” the experts emphasized.

Stablecoins have already become central to cryptocurrency trading. Following the passage of the Genius Act in the U.S., their use has significantly expanded to include everyday transactions, treasury operations, and cross-border transfers.

By 2025, the adjusted volume of stablecoin transfers exceeded $11.6 trillion, a 49% increase from the previous year. As of this writing, the total market value of fiat-pegged tokens stands at $314 billion.

Source: DefiLlama.

Jefferies expects this figure to grow to between $800 billion and $1.15 trillion by 2030. For banks, this is critical: stablecoins function like digital cash 24/7 and provide access to DeFi platforms offering higher yields than traditional accounts.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has already warned that the U.S. banking system could lose up to $6 trillion in deposits. A similar view, citing a U.S. Treasury study, was expressed by the Institute of Banking Policy, which predicted a loss of $6.6 trillion.

Long-Term Threat

A key limiting factor is regulation. The current version of the market structure bill, the Clarity Act, reduces the attractiveness of stablecoins as a savings tool. However, the final approval of this document in its current form remains uncertain.

“The Clarity Act will classify stablecoins as payment rather than savings instruments, closing the 'loophole for yield' left in the Genius Act,” Jefferies stated.

Some traditional financial giants are trying to adapt to the new conditions. Fidelity Investments has already launched its own stablecoin, FIDD. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are exploring similar opportunities.

Experts estimate that banks with a high proportion of retail and interest-bearing deposits are most at risk of capital outflows. Among the most vulnerable institutions identified by Jefferies are Wintrust, Flagstar, WBS, EagleBank, and Axos.

In contrast, large institutional players and custodians already investing in crypto infrastructure are much better protected.

It’s worth noting that in January, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci accused U.S. banks of "killing" stablecoins to benefit China.