A theory linking the prolonged correction of Bitcoin to the actions of investment firm Jane Street has gained traction on X, drawing attention from Santiment analysts.
🤯 Just as crypto was bottoming out Monday, Jane Street lawsuit headlines exploded across crypto media. As this has become mainstream news since, Bitcoin reversed sharply and tagged a local top. We break down the bearish to bullish flip in our deep dive: https://t.co/AnAvpmq5p4 pic.twitter.com/DuraflDInM
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 26, 2026
Market observers claim that since early November, the firm has systematically sold Bitcoin at 10:00 AM ET. The speculation is that the goal was to lower the asset's price to facilitate the purchase of an ETF.
Back in December, a popular X account under the name Whale Factor pointed out a pattern:
“Since November, Bitcoin has consistently lost 2-3% within minutes after the US market opens. Many traders attribute this to Jane Street's massive position in BlackRock's IBIT — over $2.5 billion.”
Following the filing of a lawsuit against the firm by Terraform Labs, other users also picked up on the manipulation theory. The main reason cited was the disappearance of morning volatility — on February 25, at the US market open, Bitcoin gained 6%, nearing $69,000.
“As soon as the lawsuit against Jane Street became public, the Bitcoin 'slam' at 10 AM mysteriously vanished,” wrote Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann via the Negentropic account.
This is not the first time the firm has faced such accusations. In June 2025, the Indian regulator SEBI banned it from local markets and froze $566 million, deemed illegal profits.
According to the agency, from January 2023 to March 2025, Jane Street employed a scheme of “morning pump, afternoon dump” to manipulate the Bank Nifty index on the expiration days of 18 futures contracts.
Arguments Against
Crypto economist Alex Krüger analyzed the data and found no evidence supporting the theory that Jane Street was crashing Bitcoin's price. His calculations show that in the first 15 minutes of trading, IBIT fell about 1%, but in the following 30 minutes, it averaged a 0.9% increase.
Everyone says bitcoin dumps at 10AM every day.
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) February 26, 2026
I pulled the data, and it's not true.
Since Jan 1, IBIT's cumulative return in the 10:00–10:30 window is +0.9%, and in the 10:00–10:15 window it's –1%. Noisy, not a systematic dump.
More interesting: the performance pattern in… pic.twitter.com/jboe0eehG0
“This is nothing more than statistical noise, not evidence of a planned dump,” he emphasized.
Krüger added that both time windows closely correlate with Nasdaq dynamics. Therefore, Bitcoin's decline at the start of US sessions was part of a broader movement in risk assets, not a result of Jane Street's actions.
ProCap's investment director and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park believes the discussions surrounding the firm stem from a misunderstanding of ETF mechanics.
Everyone is asking: "Is Jane Street why Bitcoin isn't at $150k?"
— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 25, 2026
As expected, the answer is trickier than the question. But it's also more structurally unsettling than the conspiracy theory itself—and once you understand the actual mechanics, you won't be able to unsee them👇 pic.twitter.com/iLEeJpDeo4
If Jane Street buys shares, it doesn't mean they must immediately acquire Bitcoin for each share. Major players, who create and redeem fund shares (APs, including the firm), operate under a special regulatory framework. When issuing shares, they are not required to buy coins immediately — this is permitted by law and necessary for the market's “smooth” operation.
According to Park, this structure creates a “gray window” where share creation, hedging, and spot trades are not time-bound. This is why even a significant influx of money into an ETF does not mean Bitcoin must rise immediately. The lack of purchases is not manipulation but a normal part of ETF mechanics, he concluded.
Ryan McMillan from Merkle Tree Capital added that the structure itself encourages APs to play in derivatives. Bitcoin futures are often more expensive than on the spot market. Participants can profit from this difference by hedging positions rather than buying assets directly.
“Capital in ETFs is growing, but real purchases on the exchange are not happening. This keeps growth below key levels — where hype could drive the market. When futures positions close, the market drops sharply. Retail investors perceive this as a sudden crash orchestrated by 'whales,' when in fact it's just mass closure of arbitrage trades,” McMillan explained in a comment to Decrypt.
On-chain analyst and _checkonchain founder James Check also noted that the primary culprits behind Bitcoin's prolonged correction were the coin holders themselves.
Jane Street didn't suppress the Bitcoin price folks.
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) February 26, 2026
HODLers all did.
It's just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators.
People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin. https://t.co/CrWgPUzUFP pic.twitter.com/N3VhgYjKhm
“It's just that simple — stop waking your inner salty goldbug and blaming manipulators,” he wrote.
Recall that in the fourth quarter, large investors sold shares of Bitcoin-based ETFs worth the equivalent of 25,098 BTC.