The technology sector in Asia is bracing for prolonged and significant disruptions due to the situation in the Middle East. Analysts have warned of reduced semiconductor production and a slowdown in AI data center construction, according to SCMP.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass, is effectively closed following additional U.S. blockades.

Crude oil prices have surged above $100, while spot prices for LNG delivered to Northeast Asia have approached $20 per million British thermal units.

Energy costs in the Asia-Pacific region directly impact production, transportation, and financing.

South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore cover 15-35% of their gas needs through imports from Qatar. Singapore generates about 90% of its electricity using natural gas.

In March, Iranian missiles struck the Qatari Ras Laffan complex, which accounts for roughly one-third of global supplies. Repairs are expected to take three to five years.

"After hostilities cease, normalizing natural gas production will take longer than oil due to infrastructure damage and contract renegotiation timelines," stated a report from research firm BMI.

Helium: The Backbone of Semiconductors

Chip production heavily relies on helium—a byproduct of natural gas processing. This material is essential for cooling wafers during chip etching, and there are no viable alternatives at an industrial scale, according to David Pan, director and AI expert at Moody’s.

Pan emphasized that South Korea is particularly vulnerable due to helium supply disruptions, with 65% of its helium sourced from Qatar last year.

"Orders for graphics processors and high-bandwidth memory have accumulated for over a year, so two-month supply disruptions will extend beyond that timeframe. The situation will worsen and evolve into a much longer crisis," Pan warned.

Policy decisions could also influence the situation, said Josh Yu, a researcher at the Epoch AI research institute. He noted that in a severe crisis, semiconductor manufacturing plants would become the highest priority industrial clients in South Korea and Taiwan, while limits would be set for other businesses.

The U.S. government may also intervene in the event of a significant shortage.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have signed long-term helium supply agreements with German company Linde and American firm Air Products. Taiwan's economy minister stated that the island has received assurances of resource availability from a "major" LNG-producing country.

Yu highlighted that AI chips are crucial for U.S. economic and strategic interests, so the government could ensure Taiwan receives the necessary LNG if needed.

Data Centers

Another area affected by the Middle Eastern conflict is data centers, which consume more energy than semiconductor wafer production and could face serious challenges.

According to Yu, the current rise in energy prices has not yet impacted existing data centers but could affect planned projects.

"An overall cost increase of 10-20% due to the energy crisis could put an end to some projects," the expert emphasized.

The situation threatens regional imbalances and could lead to a shift of capacities from Europe and Asia to the U.S.

It is worth noting that during the ceasefire, Iran will require shipping companies to pay for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in cryptocurrency.