The first cryptocurrency is consolidating amid low volatility. This current calm conceals the market's "fragility" and a lack of clear price direction, according to Glassnode.
Bouncing Into Supply#Bitcoin has entered the new year with constructive momentum, printing two higher highs and extending price to $98k, but the advance now runs directly into a historically significant supply zone.
ā glassnode (@glassnode) January 14, 2026
Read the full Week On-Chainš https://t.co/CfFlebieWM pic.twitter.com/jgMy9vLLsD
Analysts noted that the recent rise to $96,000 was "mechanical" in nature. It triggered a short squeeze in the futures market with low trading volumes rather than a fresh influx of capital.
Key Levels
The price has entered a historically significant supply zone ($93,000-110,000). This range contains coins held by long-term holders purchased between April and July 2025. Any attempts to rise above $93,000 face selling pressure from this group.
A crucial indicator is the average purchase price for short-term holders, which stands at $98,300. Maintaining the price above this level will preserve unrealized profits for new players and sustain market optimism.
Actions of Major Players
Long-term holders (LTH) have reduced their selling activity to 12,800 BTC per week. For comparison, during the peaks of the cycle, this figure exceeded 100,000 BTC. However, for a sustainable rally, accumulation rates must confidently outpace this supply.
Institutional flows have stabilized:
- Spot ETFs have resumed purchases;
- Buyers dominate on Binance and other platforms;
- Aggressive selling on Coinbase, which previously pressured prices, has significantly slowed.
Derivative Risks
Despite the local positivity, the options market signals ongoing risks. Traders continue to buy insurance against price declines (puts), especially for medium to long terms.
Dealers are in a "short gamma" position in the $94,000-104,000 range. In this market structure, hedging operations amplify price movements rather than dampen them. This creates conditions for a sharp spike in volatility if a strong impulse arises.
Experts consider the "market settings" for the first quarter to be constructive. If demand in the spot market continues to grow, the current consolidation could lay the groundwork for a renewed upward trend.
Shift in Sentiment
Sean Yang, chief analyst at MEXC Research, commented to ForkLog on the positive shift. Bitcoin's rise of over 8% since the beginning of the month has offset the decline in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the expert, this indicates a depletion of selling pressure and a correlation of the cryptocurrency with safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
"Historically, January brings an average growth of 9% for Bitcoin. The asset aims to test the $100,000 mark, and the current dynamics align with expectations," Yang stated.
Ethereum shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin: over two weeks, the asset has gained 12%. The analyst predicts that by the end of January, Ethereum's growth will range from 12-20%, fully compensating for December's decline.
Among the key drivers of growth, the expert highlighted:
- Liquidity Influx. The effects of quantitative easing will begin to flow into the crypto industry.
- Supply Shortage. Institutional investors are buying Bitcoin faster than miners can produce it.
- Technologies. The development of RWA and privacy segments will attract new investors.
Recall that on January 13, exchange-traded funds based on the first cryptocurrency attracted $753.7 millionāthe highest since October.