The cumulative trading volume of perpetual futures on the Hyperliquid platform has exceeded $4 trillion, a milestone achieved in just three years.
Source: Reflexivity Research.The growth rate is accelerating. The first trillion was reached in 733 days, the second in 141 days, the third in just 88 days, and the fourth in another 141 days.
The volume of buybacks from the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund has surpassed $1 billion, just 15 months after the launch of the HYPE token. The project has permanently removed 41.71 million coins from circulation, representing 4.17% of the total supply. At current prices, these assets are valued at $1.35 billion.
Analysts at Reflexivity Research highlight the effectiveness of the platform's cyclical tokenomics: increasing trading volumes generate more fees, which are used for buybacks and asset burns, systematically reducing the market supply of HYPE.
Launch of Prediction Markets (HIP-4)
The Hyperliquid developers have launched the HIP-4 protocol in testnet, introducing prediction markets as its main innovation. In the first phase, users can access binary options based on HyperCore's underlying prices.
These new contracts are fully collateralized, have a fixed price range, and carry no leverage or liquidation risk.
The system's architecture supports markets with multiple outcome options. However, during the mainnet launch, developers will limit offerings to one-day binary options on Bitcoin and the HYPE token.
The primary goal of this phase is to test technical reliability, refine smart contracts, and streamline settlement processes. The API for the launched markets operates similarly to the spot market, with relevant documentation already published.
The team has encouraged the community to test the protocol and report any bugs found.
HYPE at $150
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that by August, the price of the HYPE token could rise from its current level of around $34 to $150. He cites the influx of liquidity from centralized platforms (CEX) as the main driver of this growth.
To achieve this target, Hyperliquid's projected annual revenue must jump from $843 million in March to $1.4 billion. According to Hayes, this goal is achievable, as the platform only needs to capture an additional 4% of the derivatives market on top of its current 6% share.
The token's price is also supported by its built-in economic model, where Hyperliquid allocates 97% of its revenue to buy back HYPE from the open market. Increasing trading activity directly translates into demand for the coin.
Democratizing TradFi
Hayes noted the rising popularity of macroeconomic instruments. Amid growing demand for traditional assets, the daily trading volume of perpetual contracts on oil (CL-USDC) on the platform has surpassed $1.29 billion, outpacing the ETH-USDC pair ($1.24 billion).
Contracts based on oil, gold, silver, and U.S. stock indices already generate about 10% of Hyperliquid's revenue. Hayes expects that further development in this segment will boost the exchange's revenues by 160% in the coming months.
Technical Analysis and Unlocking Consequences
The Maelstrom family fund, associated with Hayes, previously predicted a decline in HYPE's price due to the unlocking of tokens worth $11.9 billion. Since then, the asset has dropped by approximately 40%.
From a technical analysis perspective, a "cup and handle" pattern is forming on the daily chart for HYPE. A confident breakout above the resistance at $35.5 would pave the way to a short-term target of $50.
Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView.If buyers fail to maintain momentum, the price could retreat to support around $30, where the Fibonacci level of 0.236 and the 50-day exponential moving average converge.
Recall that on March 9, analyst Darkfost identified rising oil prices as an unfavorable factor for the leading cryptocurrency.