The developers of the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid have activated the HIP-4 protocol on the HyperEVM mainnet. The main innovation is the introduction of prediction markets.

Outcome Markets, powered by @HyperliquidX

Trade now on https://t.co/DH8Myx535B ! pic.twitter.com/Q5P0vfqEAj

— Outcome (@Outcomexyz) May 2, 2026

Currently, users can place bets on a single event — whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed $79,980 by May 5.

Source: Hyperliquid.

On the first day of trading, the volume reached 6.05 million contracts, noted researcher defioasis.eth. For comparison, during the same period, the Kalshi platform recorded 546 million contracts, while Polymarket had 190 million.

Hyperliquid HIP-4 event contracts are officially live

On the first trading day, HIP-4 event contracts had a nominal trading volume of 6.05 million contracts, accounting for about 0.7% of the daily prediction market share

In comparison:

— Kalshi: 546 million contracts
— Polymarket: 190 million contracts
— Limitless: 68.26 million contracts
— Crypto.com: 28.2 million contracts
— Opinion:… pic.twitter.com/7jrjsOino6

— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) May 3, 2026

Thus, Hyperliquid's product has already captured about 0.7% of the daily volume on prediction markets.

How HIP-4 Works

The protocol allows users to create markets for event outcomes within the Hyperliquid infrastructure. To launch a market, a user must stake 1 million HYPE tokens. This approach differs from Polymarket's model, which requires platform approval.

Contracts are natively integrated into the L1 HyperEVM network. In contrast, Polymarket's event betting is a separate product on the L2 solution Polygon.

Predictions are available in the same wallet and trading environment as other Hyperliquid tools. Profit and loss calculations are conducted in the project's stablecoin, USDH. Trading operates on a central order book.

April Summary

In April, the total trading volume on prediction platforms reached $29.8 billion, up from $26.5 billion in March.

Monthly Prediction Market Notional Volumes
(2026-04 vs 2026-03)
2026-04: 29.0B | 2026-03: 26.5B

• Kalshi: 14.8B (+13.3% MoM)
• Polymarket: 8.2B (-22.2% MoM)
• Limitless: 1.7B (+207.8% MoM)
• Predict: 1.5B (+368.2% MoM)
• Polymarket (US): 1.3B (+85.2% MoM)
•… pic.twitter.com/qKkHvGNLZE

— dash (@datadashboards) May 3, 2026

Kalshi led the market with $14.8 billion in volume (+13.3% month-over-month). Polymarket followed with a volume of $9 billion (-14.8%). Despite the decline, the U.S. division of the platform saw an 85% increase, rising to $1.3 billion. The project resumed operations in the U.S. at the end of 2025.

Limitless (+207%) and Predict (+368%) showed even more significant growth.

As a reminder, at the end of April, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that Hyperliquid would lead the prediction market thanks to the HYPE token.