Hyperliquid Launches New Product to Compete with Polymarket

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Hyperliquid's New HIP-4 Product Allows Traders to Bet on Offchain Events

By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Omkar Godbole May 26, 2026, 6:44 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on

Key Points:

• Hyperliquid has introduced its HIP-4 outcome market, enabling users to trade prediction contracts on offchain events such as U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions, alongside cryptocurrency derivatives.
• In contrast to Polymarket, which uses UMA’s external oracles, Hyperliquid resolves these markets with its own set of validators that evaluate news, decide on market listings, and vote on settlement outcomes.
• The Yes/No contracts are fully collateralized and settle at either 1 USDC or zero, positioning Hyperliquid as a potential multi-asset platform for traders to blend crypto derivatives with macro and event-driven bets without the need to transfer collateral between platforms.

Overview of the Article

Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange, is now in competition with established platforms like Polymarket, offering a unique method for resolving bets.

This innovative decentralized exchange has broadened its HIP-4 outcome contracts beyond just cryptocurrency price targets to include real-world events. This prediction-market framework allows users to trade macro contracts, including inflation data and interest-rate decisions, within the same account as their crypto perpetuals.

The introduction of outcome markets signifies a significant development for Hyperliquid, which initially focused on crypto perpetual futures and tested its product with price-outcome contracts tied to its own market data.

Initially, Hyperliquid tested its product using exchange-native outcomes, such as whether Bitcoin would exceed a certain price within a specified time, employing its own reference prices. The latest expansion includes real-world macro events, such as U.S. inflation rates and Federal Reserve decisions, putting it directly in competition with platforms like Polymarket.

In-House Resolution

The distinguishing feature of HIP-4 is its in-house dispute resolution and settlement process, rather than relying on an external oracle network like Polymarket.

This distinction is crucial because offchain events create challenges in determining factual outcomes.

Polymarket utilizes UMA, an external oracle protocol, which operates an optimistic dispute resolution system. A proposed settlement remains unless contested, at which point UMA tokenholders vote on the final decision. This approach has faced scrutiny due to contentious resolutions and allegations that large tokenholders could sway results.

In contrast, Hyperliquid employs a more integrated model. Validators collect external data through automated news feeds, assess whether markets should be launched, and vote on settlement outcomes.

A Versatile Trading Platform

The launch also aligns with Hyperliquid's ambition to transform into a multi-asset trading venue. A recent report from FalconX suggests that the exchange's expanding range of products could allow it to compete not only with crypto-native rivals but also with traditional exchanges.

For instance, traders could combine a HIP-3 perps position on NVDA with outcome markets predicting whether NVDA will meet or exceed earnings expectations, as previously reported by CoinDesk.

Hyperliquid’s outcome markets are designed as fully collateralized contracts rather than leveraged bets, which mitigates potential losses to the initial amount invested. Traders can purchase “Yes” or “No” positions related to specific events, with contracts settling at either 1 USDC or zero USDC based on the actual outcome. If a trader buys a “Yes” contract for 0.65 USDC, their maximum loss is capped at that upfront investment, which differs from perpetual futures where leverage can lead to liquidations.

This structure places the product somewhere between a prediction market and a simplified binary options contract.

If Hyperliquid’s outcome markets gain popularity, traders may eventually utilize the same platform to express views on crypto, hedge against macro risks, and speculate on event outcomes without needing to transfer collateral between different platforms.