Hyperliquid has launched HIP-4, a new prediction market for trading offchain events, aiming to compete with Polymarket.
Hyperliquid has launched its HIP-4 outcome market, a new platform enabling users to trade prediction contracts focused on offchain events, such as U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions, in addition to cryptocurrency derivatives.
This initiative sets Hyperliquid apart from Polymarket, which relies on UMA's external oracles for market resolution. Instead, Hyperliquid utilizes its own validators to evaluate news, manage market listings, and determine settlement outcomes.
The innovative Yes/No contracts offered by Hyperliquid are fully collateralized and settle at either 1 USDC or zero, making it a versatile multi-asset platform for traders. This allows users to engage in macro and event-driven betting without needing to transfer collateral across different platforms.
Previously, Hyperliquid focused solely on crypto perpetual futures and tested its offerings with price-outcome contracts based on its own market data. The expansion to include real-world macro events marks a significant shift, positioning it directly against competitors like Polymarket.
In-House Settlement Process
A key feature of HIP-4 is its proprietary dispute resolution process. Unlike Polymarket, which employs an external oracle network and an optimistic dispute resolution system, Hyperliquid's validators gather data from automated news feeds to assess market launches and vote on outcomes.
This integrated method addresses challenges associated with determining factual outcomes for offchain events, which have previously led to scrutiny over Polymarket's resolution process.
Future of Multi-Asset Trading
The launch of HIP-4 aligns with Hyperliquid's goal to evolve into a comprehensive trading venue. According to a report from FalconX, this expansion may enable Hyperliquid to compete with both crypto-native exchanges and traditional trading platforms.
Traders can now combine positions in cryptocurrency derivatives with outcome markets predicting specific events, such as corporate earnings. The fully collateralized nature of the outcome markets limits potential losses to the initial investment, distinguishing them from leveraged perpetual futures.
Should Hyperliquid's new outcome markets gain traction, traders could leverage the platform for a range of investment strategies, including crypto speculation, hedging macro risks, and betting on event outcomes, all within a single interface.
