HTX Research, the research division of the HTX exchange, has released a strategic report for Q3 2026. The analysis focuses on two key factors: global liquidity and regulation.

What Happened in Q2

Analysts believe that Q2 did not mark the end of the crypto cycle. They attribute the correction to four main factors:

  • the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric — maintaining interest rates in the 3.50–3.75% range while significantly tightening forecasts;
  • the strengthening of the dollar;
  • a reversal of flows in spot ETFs;
  • a decrease in demand from corporate treasuries.

Bitcoin fell from a May peak of around $82,000 to $59,000 in June, representing a drop of about 24%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow in April ($1.97 billion), but reversed to outflows in May (-$2.43 billion) and June (-$2.45 billion). Total net investments in funds decreased from $58.09 billion to $53.22 billion, while assets under management dropped from $100.5 billion to $77.5 billion.

Excessive leverage exacerbated the decline. The total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures reached 290,000 BTC, but after breaking key levels in early June, cascading liquidations reduced it to 257,000 BTC.

HTX Research believes this correction is fundamentally different from the previous bear market, which was triggered by a credit collapse and a loss of trust in institutions within the industry. The current decline is linked to rising funding costs and the disappearance of margin buyers — a macroeconomic shock rather than an industry-specific issue.

Bitcoin as a Proxy for Global Liquidity

According to HTX Research, Bitcoin has ceased to be merely a cryptocurrency asset and has become a tool for betting on global dollar liquidity. Evidence of this is the sharp shift in correlations over the quarter: Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq rose from -0.68 to +0.72, with S&P 500 from +0.13 to +0.74, and with gold from -0.49 to +0.16.

During the initial phase of the military conflict between Iran and Israel, gold outperformed Bitcoin, which behaved more like a risk asset closely tied to the stock market. Analysts suggest this is due to Bitcoin becoming part of institutional portfolios through ETFs, macro funds, and corporate treasuries.

Analysts highlight four variables that will determine Bitcoin's dynamics in Q3:

  • whether stable inflows into ETFs will resume;
  • whether the dollar index will peak;
  • whether the recovery of the TGA will draw liquidity from the market;
  • whether windows for corporate treasury financing will reopen.

If these factors improve simultaneously, the asset could enter a trend recovery. However, if the market only reacts to sentiment without real capital flows, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound.

Ethereum: Ecosystem Grows, Token Lags

The second quarter widened the gap between Ethereum and Bitcoin: Bitcoin lost about 6.1%, while Ethereum dropped 19.1%, and the ETH/BTC pair fell from 0.0314 to 0.0271 (-13.9%).

This disparity is also evident in institutional flows: accumulated net investments in Bitcoin ETFs reached about $53.45 billion compared to $11.21 billion for ETH ETFs. By mid-June, Bitcoin funds reported a quarterly outflow of $2.65 billion, while ETH funds saw an outflow of $384 million.

After the Dencun upgrade, the cost of data for L2 networks decreased, improving scaling economics but simultaneously reducing fees and ETH burning on the main network. According to ultrasound.money, annual burning is around 21,000 ETH against an issuance of 1.03 million ETH — the coin's supply is growing at approximately 0.83% per year. Meanwhile, ETH staking yields remain around 1.42% annually — insufficient to compete with U.S. Treasury yields in a high-rate environment.

For ETH to recover to trend levels rather than just bounce back from oversold conditions, concrete confirmations are needed: an increase in fees and burning on the main network, a return of inflows into ETFs, and progress in DeFi and staking regulation. HTX Research maintains a neutral outlook on ETH with tactical growth potential.

DeFi Shifts from TVL to Cash Flow

In Q2, major DeFi protocols showed a divergence between fundamental metrics and token prices: some projects improved their metrics, yet their tokens continued to decline.

Part of the declines was due to the Kelp DAO incident on April 18, which caused Aave's TVL to drop from $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion, while the entire DeFi sector lost about $13.2 billion over two days, hitting an annual low of around $82.4 billion. Following this, the market began to price in a broader risk discount for bridges, oracles, and liquid staking tokens (LST/LRT).

Analysts describe this as a shift in valuation models: TVL indicates how much money has entered a protocol but does not show whether the protocol is profitable or whether token holders benefit. The focus is now on actual revenue, income stability, risk management quality, and whether activity translates into token price. HTX Research is selectively increasing its emphasis on protocols with these characteristics rather than the sector as a whole.

RWA, Stablecoins, and Tokenized Stocks

The market for tokenized real-world assets (RWA), excluding stablecoins, grew from $29.49 billion to $32.28 billion — a 9.5% increase over the quarter. The main contribution came from tokenized U.S. government bonds, which rose from $13.65 billion to $15.04 billion.

Among individual products, Circle USYC reached $3.07 billion, surpassing BlackRock's BUIDL fund at $2.37 billion, while Ondo USDY grew to $2.15 billion — a 63% increase over 90 days. Within the sector, there is a rotation: tokenized stocks increased by 54.9% to $1.58 billion, corporate credit products rose by 25% to $1.75 billion, while commodity assets and secured loans fell by 12.5% and 15.3%, respectively.

HTX Research estimates that high rates support demand for yield-bearing on-chain assets. Unlike stablecoins, tokenized government bonds and money market funds provide returns comparable to traditional finance while retaining blockchain advantages. Competition in the RWA segment is shifting from issuer branding to practical application: it is crucial whether an asset can be used as collateral, in margin trading, and to meet institutional compliance requirements.

The overall supply of stablecoins changed unevenly over the quarter. USDT increased from $184.3 billion to $186.4 billion (+1.2%), with $3.4 billion added from the TRON network. Conversely, USDC fell from $77.2 billion to $74.9 billion (-3.0%) amid outflows from Ethereum and inflows to the Hyperliquid exchange. The most significant declines were seen in USDe (-30.3%, to $4.1 billion) and PYUSD (-29.9%, to $2.8 billion), while the tokenized fund BUIDL gained 9% to reach $3 billion.

Another area of analysis focuses on tokenized stocks and payments for AI agents. The U.S. internal market is regulated slowly, leading to primary demand from offshore jurisdictions and non-American users. AI agents, in turn, require automated micropayments and settlements — the banking infrastructure is poorly suited for this, and stablecoins and on-chain settlements could fill this niche.

CLARITY Act — The Main Regulatory Intrigue of the Quarter

Analysts consider regulation the second most significant factor of the quarter after liquidity: while liquidity determines the overall market direction, regulation dictates where capital will flow.

The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May. The market has already reacted to this procedural progress: following the committee's approval, Bitcoin briefly surged to $81,965, Coinbase shares rose by 9.10% in a day, Strategy by 8.16%, and Robinhood by 6.16%. On derivative markets, short positions in regulatory-sensitive tokens worth over $250 million were liquidated within hours.

According to HTX Research, the benefits from the passage of CLARITY will be unevenly distributed: Bitcoin already has mature spot ETFs and clear institutional access, so the primary effect will be felt by assets with a larger "regulatory discount" — Ethereum, DeFi, stablecoins, RWA, and tokenized securities.

Q3 Forecast

The future dynamics will depend on two factors: the recovery of global liquidity and sufficient regulatory clarity for institutional investors to return to riskier investments.

“Bitcoin is a core portfolio position, RWA is a structural position, quality DeFi is a growth position, ETH is a tactical position awaiting confirmations, while altcoins outside the market leaders remain off the key themes for the quarter,” HTX Research states in its report.

Analysts believe that the Q3 market will reward not just any risk, but only that which is backed by real liquidity, cash flow, and a clear regulatory path. The division will continue to publish quarterly strategies and other research for HTX users as the macroeconomic and regulatory situation evolves.

As a reminder, in May, the monthly trading volume of TradFi futures on HTX exceeded $1 billion for the first time.