Summary
- On Thursday, Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) presented the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act.
- This legislation would prevent members of Congress, along with their spouses and dependent children, from engaging in betting on policy decisions, government actions, or electoral outcomes through prediction markets.
- The bill is part of a wider federal examination of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which includes a Senate prohibition on member and staff betting, as well as a House Oversight inquiry into these platforms.
A senior Republican in the House, introduced a new bill on Thursday that would make it illegal for members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children to place bets on prediction markets related to legislative matters, government actions, or election results.
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), who heads the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, asserting that the purpose of the legislation is to prevent elected officials from profiting from information that is not yet available to the public.
"The American people deserve to know that their Member of Congress isn’t benefiting from insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act guarantees that this won't occur," Chairman Steil remarked in a statement. "This legislation is vital for rebuilding public trust in elected officials. Lawmakers should focus on crafting policy, not betting on its results."
According to the proposed law, those who violate the rules would face a fine of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever amount is higher, plus any profits gained from the wager. Lawmakers are prohibited from using official office funds, taxpayer allowances, or campaign contributions to pay the fines, and individuals who leave office without settling the fines may be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
Steil’s office noted that this legislation builds upon the Stop Insider Trading Act, which the committee had advanced in January.
This bill comes amid increasing bipartisan concern in Washington regarding lawmakers and government officials using betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to wager on political events, including their own electoral contests.
Earlier this month, Steil informed reporters that he plans to include similar restrictions in a broader bill aimed at banning congressional stock trading, which already prohibits lawmakers, their spouses, and dependents from purchasing new stocks and imposes similar penalties for violations. However, progress on the stock-trading bill has stalled since it passed through committee in February, although Steil expressed optimism that the House could vote on it this summer.
The new bill concerning prediction markets also follows recent federal actions: In April, the Senate passed a resolution prohibiting its members and staff from utilizing prediction markets, and in May, the House Oversight Committee initiated investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket over what its chairman described as a pattern of insider trading on these platforms.
These legislative actions follow the high-profile arrest in April of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly used confidential information to place a series of bets on Polymarket regarding the January ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, resulting in profits exceeding $400,000. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to the allegations, with the trial scheduled for December.