House Republican Proposes Bill to Prohibit Lawmaker Bets on Prediction Markets

New Legislation Introduced to Prevent Betting by Lawmakers

On Thursday, Representative Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) unveiled the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, a bill designed to restrict members of Congress, along with their spouses and dependent children, from participating in betting on prediction markets that deal with legislative issues, government actions, or electoral outcomes.

The primary goal of this legislation is to eliminate any potential for lawmakers to profit from non-public information. Steil emphasized the need for public trust, stating, "The American people deserve to know that their Member of Congress isn’t benefiting from insider information. This legislation is vital for rebuilding public trust in elected officials."

Under the proposed bill, violators could face a fine of either $2,000 or 10% of the value of their wager, whichever is greater, in addition to forfeiting any profits earned from the wagers. Importantly, the legislation prohibits the use of official office funds, taxpayer allowances, or campaign contributions to pay these fines. Those who leave office without settling their fines may be referred to the Justice Department for enforcement actions.

This initiative forms part of a broader federal scrutiny of prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Recent actions include a Senate resolution banning its members and staff from engaging with these platforms and a House Oversight Committee investigation into potential insider trading practices.

Steil's bill builds upon previous efforts, including the Stop Insider Trading Act, which was advanced earlier this year. It also aligns with ongoing discussions about banning congressional stock trading, which has made limited progress since being passed out of committee earlier this year.

This legislative push comes in light of rising concerns about the ethical implications of lawmakers betting on political events, especially following a high-profile case involving Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was arrested for allegedly profiting from insider information related to Venezuelan politics.