In a column for ForkLog, trader and author of the Coen+ Telegram channel, Vladimir Koen, analyzed how markets are adjusting to expectations of sustained high interest rates, the impact of rising oil prices and yields on assets, and the current situation with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto fund flows.

Financial Markets: September 8–14, 2026.

During spring and summer, there was much debate about whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. As this article was prepared, futures indicated a 90.07% probability of this happening, a significant increase from 33% a month prior.

Probabilities for Federal Reserve interest rate levels at upcoming meetings. Source: CME FedWatch.

Financial markets are already restructuring themselves for a prolonged period of elevated rates and yields. Central banks in many major economies have begun tightening monetary policy in response to rising inflation.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds (UST 10Y) has approached 5%, while the yield on 30-year bonds remains above 5.3%. Yields on long-term bonds in the UK, France, and Australia are also around 5%.

Source: Bloomberg Markets Pulse, author.

Oil and Global Tensions Sustain Inflation Premium

Brent crude oil has remained above $100 for over a week. The escalation of international tensions is simultaneously supporting energy prices, transportation costs, government expenditures, and military investments.

This is why the current rise in yields cannot be attributed solely to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions. The market is factoring in more persistent inflationary pressures and high capital costs.

AI: From Investment Growth to Profitability Scrutiny

In this context, capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (CAPEX) are becoming increasingly sensitive, as they are the primary driver of the investment boom in recent years. However, this is not a repeat of the dot-com bubble.

Capital is genuinely being directed toward data centers, chip and component manufacturing, energy, electrical grids, and construction. At the same time, a new investment cycle in defense has begun.

The tech boom and international tensions have created high industrial demand, which is reflected in real economic growth. Yet, with risk-free yields around 5%, the next phase requires the market to demonstrate the profitability of these investments. As a result, the differentiation among companies based on earnings, free cash flow, and actual returns on capital will become significantly stricter.

Gold and Silver: Correction Lingers

The rise in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) to 99.5 and UST yields has created strong short-term pressure. On September 14, gold fell to $4270, while silver dropped to $63. Multiple attempts to hold above $4500 and $70 were thwarted by sellers.

Nevertheless, fundamental and industrial demand remains robust. In August, global gold ETFs saw an influx of approximately $18 billion. Central banks and sovereign funds are increasing their gold reserves.

Budget deficits, high costs of servicing public debt, and inflation risks will continue to support gold demand.

Crypto Market: Relative Strength Becomes Apparent

A notable divergence is currently emerging between the crypto market and traditional risk assets.

Bitcoin has maintained a range of $77,000–$78,000 despite rising UST yields, a stronger dollar, and pressure on tech stocks. In the past week, Bitcoin ETFs lost over $460 million, with outflows occurring for four consecutive sessions.

Performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past week. Source: CryptoRank.

This indicates that Bitcoin's price is holding up better than ETF flows, which is a positive sign of relative strength.

The $80,000 mark remains a crucial threshold: a return above it, alongside a recovery in ETF inflows, would confirm the re-entry of spot buyers. Conversely, a drop below $76,000 would significantly worsen the correction's structure.

Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin

While Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows, Ethereum ETFs recorded an inflow of $216.4 million over the week. The amount of Ether in staking reached all-time highs, largely due to ETFs with this feature and Bitmine.

Capital flows into cryptocurrency ETFs over the past week. Source: CoinGlass.

This contrasts with the previous market structure, where almost all institutional demand was concentrated in Bitcoin. We are witnessing clear signs of capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum.

CLARITY Act: A Key Event for the Crypto Market This Week

On September 15, the Senate is set to hold a procedural vote to advance the CLARITY Act. A new compromise on ethical restrictions emerged on September 14, resolving some disagreements between Republicans and Democrats.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clearer distinction between digital goods and securities and define the division of powers between the CFTC and SEC.

The most significant positive impact will be on tokens and DeFi projects, whose status remains uncertain in the U.S.

Ethereum appears to be the main beneficiary: the institutional infrastructure is already in place, ETFs exist, and reduced uncertainty facilitates further development of staking, DeFi, and asset tokenization.

Consequently, reactions to the CLARITY Act may vary: Bitcoin may receive a slight regulatory premium, while Ethereum and Solana could see potentially larger benefits, with DeFi remaining sensitive to the final text's details.

Conclusion

An unusual regime is forming: capital costs are rising alongside enormous investment needs in the global economy.

AI demands increasing computational power, energy, and infrastructure, while the defense sector requires expanded production and government spending. International tensions keep oil prices and logistics costs high. The critical combination for the market is:

Brent > $110 + UST 10Y > 5% + widening credit spreads.

As long as credit remains stable and corporate profits are high, expensive capital leads to asset rotation and stricter selection. Money stays in the market. If all three conditions are met simultaneously, the regime will change: the market will shift from overvaluing specific expensive assets to a full tightening of financial conditions and an accelerated reduction of risk.