The current structure of the cryptocurrency market resembles the cycle from 2015 to 2017, characterized by "moderate dips," according to analysts at Glassnode.
Experts suggested that the October peak may have marked the end of the bullish phase. If so, the corrections appear minor and echo the dynamics of seven years ago.
At the $69,000 mark, the unrealized loss was about 17% of the market capitalization.
The researchers emphasized that the current state of investors mirrors the structure seen in early May 2022.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,154, having dropped 3.1% in the last 24 hours.
15-minute BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.
Wintermute's Perspective
Market maker Wintermute noted the complete loss of Bitcoin's growth accumulated since Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) February 10, 2026
Analysts believe that the decline was driven by pressure from American capital, significant outflows from spot ETFs, and a liquidity shift towards the artificial intelligence sector.
Over the past weekend, liquidation volumes exceeded $2.7 billion. Bitcoin broke below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, after which the price plummeted to $60,000. Later, prices corrected to around $70,000.
The asset has lost 50% from its all-time high, marking the deepest drop since 2022.
Experts identified three triggers for the crash:
- The nomination of Kevin Warsh as head of the Federal Reserve.
- Disappointing earnings reports from tech giants (the "Magnificent Seven").
- Correction in the precious metals market.
Seller Pressure
Analysis of capital flows indicates structural selling by investors from the U.S. The Coinbase Premium index (the difference between prices on Coinbase and the global market) has remained negative since December, confirming sustained selling pressure in the U.S.
Institutional support, which previously drove growth, has dried up. Since November, there has been a net outflow of $6.2 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs—the longest series of liquidity withdrawals since these instruments were launched.
A key source of pressure has been BlackRock's IBIT fund. When investors withdraw funds, issuers are forced to sell coins in a declining market, creating a spiral of further price drops.
Capital Outflow to AI
Wintermute analysts linked the weakness in the crypto market to the boom in artificial intelligence. AI projects are absorbing free capital at the expense of other risk assets.
Bitcoin's dynamics now correlate with software developers' stocks. Excluding the AI sector from the Nasdaq index, the negative correlation with cryptocurrencies nearly disappears. A decline in the hype surrounding AI is necessary to rekindle interest in digital assets.
Forecast and Conditions for Reversal
The market has gone through capitulation: volatility has surged, and excess leverage has been "washed out." However, analysts do not expect a quick V-shaped recovery. Unrealized losses in digital asset treasuries have reached $25 billion.
Wintermute believes a sustainable rebound is unlikely until three conditions are met:
- The Coinbase Premium returns to positive territory;
- Funds flow back into ETFs;
- Stabilization of baseline rates.
In the near term, the market anticipates a period of high volatility and price discovery. The trend direction will continue to be dictated by institutional flows through ETFs and derivatives.
Saylor: Bitcoin Will Outperform S&P 500
Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin will maintain its superiority over traditional assets in the coming years. The current dip does not alter the company's strategy of accumulating coins.
In an interview with CNBC, he predicted that over the long term, digital gold will significantly outperform major stock indices.
"I believe that in the next four to eight years, Bitcoin will outperform the S&P by two to three times," he noted.
Despite the market downturn, the firm continues to bolster its treasury. On February 9, Strategy reported purchasing an additional 1,142 BTC for approximately $90 million.
Thus, the total assets on the company's balance sheet reached 714,644 BTC, accounting for over 3.4% of Bitcoin's total supply.
Saylor dismissed concerns that price pressure might force the company to begin selling assets.
"We are not going to sell. We will be buying Bitcoin. I expect we will be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever," the entrepreneur emphasized.
Saylor added that volatility is an inherent part of the asset's appeal. Investors with a multi-year planning horizon should focus on long-term performance rather than short-term fluctuations.
What About Ethereum?
Major Ethereum holders continue to build their positions despite prices falling below their average entry points, noted on-chain analyst CW8900.
Ethereum has Fallen Below the Realized Price of the Accumulation Addresses
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026
“The current price is below the price at which they began accumulating. Furthermore, their accumulation is proceeding even more aggressively.” – By @CW8900
Link ⤵️https://t.co/CXLpY9rKzC pic.twitter.com/JbBlwSzKHT
According to the expert, the market value of the second-largest cryptocurrency has fallen below the realized price of accumulation addresses. Essentially, the asset is trading below the levels at which large players built their primary positions.
Typically, going "underwater" triggers panic among retail traders. However, whales react differently: they do not halt purchases but rather increase their activity.
The analyst noted that a significant accumulation phase for Ethereum began in June 2025 and has continued since. CW8900 highlighted two key factors:
- The current price is below the starting point of accumulation.
- The pace of coin purchases is now higher than at the initial stage.
In the expert's view, large capital sees the correction as an opportunity to buy at favorable prices and average down their positions.
The second-largest cryptocurrency is trading at $1,947 (-3% in the last 24 hours).
15-minute ETH/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.
Recall that Amberdata noted the absence of signs of capitulation among Bitcoin investors.