The price of the leading cryptocurrency is currently 15% below its true average market price of $77,200. According to analysts at Glassnode, on-chain metrics indicate that the bearish trend persists.

Source: Glassnode.

Short-term holders have yet to break even. The MVRV ratio for this group has risen from 0.81 to 0.9 but remains below the critical level of 1. On average, coins were purchased at $72,600, so the recent rise to $65,000 has not offset losses.

Source: Glassnode.

Bitcoin's realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the past 90 days, totaling $1.07 trillion. This confirms a net outflow of capital from the network. To transition to a bullish phase, the indicator must start rising again, and the price needs to stabilize above $77,200.

Impact of Macroeconomics

The price drop in May and June is attributed to a "war premium." Following news of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, tensions eased. WTI crude oil fell from $86 to $76, and gold lost its safe-haven premium. During this period, Bitcoin stabilized within the $65,000-66,000 range.

The situation regarding spot liquidity has improved. On the Binance exchange, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeded the number of sell orders. Passive buyers have begun actively absorbing supply around the $60,000 mark.

Source: Glassnode.

In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) has decreased. Expected volatility has normalized, dropping from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. Meanwhile, the main risk zone (negative gamma) is concentrated at the $68,000 level—here, dealers will need to actively hedge positions in the event of a price increase.

Source: Glassnode.

Analysts concluded that the market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling have disappeared. Further recovery depends on liquidity inflows and the ability of buyers to maintain current levels.

Recall that on June 18, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell below $64,000. The market reacted with a decline following the results of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh.