Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Bearish Zone

Bitcoin is currently trading at 15% below its estimated market value of $77,200, indicating the continuation of a bearish trend, according to Glassnode analysts. On-chain analytics reveal that short-term holders remain at a loss, with the MVRV ratio slightly increasing from 0.81 to 0.9 but still under the crucial threshold of 1. Purchasers in this category acquired coins at an average price of $72,600, and the recent increase to $65,000 has not alleviated their losses.

In the past three months, Bitcoin's realized capitalization has dropped by 1.45% to $1.07 trillion, further confirming a capital outflow from the network. A shift to a bullish phase will require this metric to rise and the price to hold steady above $77,200.

Macroeconomic Influences

The cryptocurrency's price decline in May and June has been linked to geopolitical tensions, referred to as a "war premium." Following a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, commodity prices such as WTI crude oil and gold decreased, leading Bitcoin to stabilize between $65,000 and $66,000.

Moreover, liquidity conditions have shown improvement, with a notable increase in buy orders on Binance. Passive buyers are reportedly absorbing supply around the $60,000 level. Meanwhile, demand for put options has lessened, and implied volatility on weekly contracts has normalized from 65% to 35%. The primary risk area for dealers is now positioned at $68,000, where they may need to hedge against price increases.

Analysts suggest the market remains sensitive but that signs of forced selling have faded. Future recovery will depend on ongoing liquidity support and buyer resilience at current pricing levels.

It's worth noting that Bitcoin's price fell below $64,000 on June 18, reacting to the outcome of the Federal Reserve's initial meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh.