Realized losses for Bitcoin holders who purchased coins in 2024-2025 have started to decline. In previous cycles, similar trends have often preceded the onset of a bullish phase, noted leading Glassnode analyst known as cryptovizart.
One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market's end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders.
This age bracket captures coins last moved roughly 12 to 24 months ago, placing them closest to cycle-peak buyers. As frustration builds… https://t.co/ZVfB1VgFVl pic.twitter.com/v2W2pleOOK
— cryptovizart (@cryptovizart) July 16, 2026
According to him, when price weakness lingers, this group of investors typically intensifies loss realization—capitulating and increasing selling pressure. Historically, a stable bottom has formed after this pressure subsides: sellers "burn out," and the market stops receiving new waves of supply from participants going into the red.
A similar situation occurred from July 2024 to July 2025, when Bitcoin's price surged from $62,800 to $107,000.
At the beginning of July this year, the 30-day total of realized losses exceeded $75 million. Following this, the figure began to decline.
"When the metric cools down, it often serves as one of the earliest signals of the end of sell-offs," stated cryptovizart.
He emphasized that this is a preliminary signal—not a guarantee of a reversal or confirmed bottom.
Additionally, the Glassnode team highlighted a significant resistance level for Bitcoin at $69,000. Analysts linked this zone to the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders and previous historical highs from the last bullish cycle.
"The first encounter with this level will likely trigger a strong reaction—those who are just breaking even are the most inclined to sell," the experts wrote.
A confident hold above this mark would give the cryptocurrency room to grow. Otherwise, Bitcoin may remain stuck in its current range.
At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $64,200, having decreased by 0.7% in the last 24 hours.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.Recall that on July 14, inflation data for June was released in the U.S. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's price rose above $65,000.