Analysts at Glassnode have observed the first cryptocurrency consolidating near key on-chain levels. The market needs confirmation of demand to avoid further structural weakening and a price decline.

Stress Builds Below Resistance$BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/gHlpg5XSxZ pic.twitter.com/eaSm7G9vTI

— glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2026

The digital gold is trading below the cost basis for short-term holders, which stands at $96,500. Experts noted that the current market structure resembles downturns seen in Q1 2022 and Q2 2018.

Critical support is at $83,400. Losing this level could lead to a drop to the "true average market price" of $80,700.

The proportion of short-term investors with unrealized losses has decreased to 19.5%. While this is far from capitulation (55%), this group is sensitive to downturns—breaking support could intensify selling pressure.

Over 22% of the Bitcoin market supply is currently in the red. If prices continue to fall, long-term holders may start to realize losses, potentially triggering a spike in volatility.

The liquidity situation has stabilized:

  • Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, returning to neutral levels;
  • Binance leads the spot market with a moderate recovery in purchases;
  • Activity on Coinbase remains subdued, indicating weak momentum from American investors.

The derivatives market is showing caution. Funding rates for perpetual futures are neutral, with no speculative overheating. Traders are hedging short-term risks through options but do not anticipate a crash.

However, dealer positioning ("short gamma" below $90,000) poses a risk of accelerated declines due to market maker actions. A fresh influx of liquidity into the spot market is necessary for sustainable growth to resume.

As a reminder, in January, experts from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode noted a market recovery following October's deleveraging.