Glassnode Identifies $83,400 as Last Support Level Before Bitcoin Price Drop

Glassnode analysts have highlighted that Bitcoin is currently consolidating at significant on-chain levels, indicating the need for confirmed demand to prevent further price declines.

Stress Builds Below Resistance $BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive. Read the full Week On-Chain👇— glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2026

The cryptocurrency is trading below the short-term holder cost basis of $96,500, raising concerns that the market structure mirrors downturns from early 2022 and mid-2018.

Key support is identified at $83,400; falling below this threshold could trigger a drop to the "true average market price" of around $80,700.

Currently, 19.5% of short-term investors are experiencing unrealized losses, a figure that, while not indicating capitulation, suggests sensitivity to price drops. A breach of support could lead to increased selling pressure.

Moreover, over 22% of Bitcoin's total supply is in a loss position. If the downward trend persists, long-term holders may begin to realize losses, potentially causing heightened market volatility.

On the liquidity front, conditions have stabilized:

• Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have moderated, returning to neutral;
• Binance is seeing a moderate recovery in purchases, leading the spot market;
• Coinbase activity remains low, indicating weak interest from American investors.

The derivatives market reflects caution as well, with neutral funding rates for perpetual futures and traders hedging against short-term risks without expecting a market crash. However, dealer positioning suggests a risk of rapid declines if market makers act on "short gamma" below $90,000. A new influx of liquidity is essential for sustainable recovery.

In January, analysts from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode noted signs of market recovery following a period of deleveraging in October.