On August 26, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates proposed that society should intentionally retain certain jobs for humans, even as artificial intelligence and robots become capable of performing those tasks. He also called for the taxation of AI tokens and robots, along with the establishment of an international risk management system for technology.
Gates referred to the concept of jobs protected from automation as "Human Reserved." He believes that the advancement of AI will lead to the disappearance of certain professions, and simply retraining workers may not be sufficient.
Retaining Jobs for Humans
Gates likened the Human Reserved concept to nature reserves: while society has the technical ability to automate certain activities, it consciously chooses not to do so due to their inherent human value.
He cited elderly care as an example, arguing that in healthcare, it is inappropriate for a robot to independently inform a patient of an incurable illness, even if it is technically capable of doing so.
In the fields of education and psychiatric care, he envisions a mixed model where a human specialist remains central, with AI enhancing their capabilities. The boundaries of Human Reserved may vary by country, influenced by demographics, culture, and labor market conditions.
Gates suggested that in the most stringent scenario, up to 40% of jobs might initially fall under such protection. However, he did not provide specific criteria for selecting professions and acknowledged challenges related to enforcement and international competition.
He anticipates that in the coming years, AI will particularly impact office jobs. Later on, competition is expected to extend to manual labor, predicting that by the end of the decade, robots will begin to compete with humans in specific tasks in construction and hospitality.
Taxation on AI Tokens and Robots
As part of his plan, Gates proposed a reform of labor and capital taxation, advocating for taxes on AI tokens and robots. He believes the current tax system incentivizes replacing human workers with machines. When hiring a person, employers pay taxes on wages, while purchasing equipment can typically be deducted as a business expense.
He suggested that the revenue generated from these taxes should be directed towards retraining, social support for those who lose their jobs, and aiding regions most affected by automation. However, he emphasized that the tax should be structured to avoid hindering the use of AI in areas where it reduces the costs of medical or educational services.
Proposing an International Organization for AI
Gates expressed that the current system of governance is unprepared for the scale of changes brought about by AI. This technology impacts employment, education, taxation, energy, elections, healthcare, the financial system, law enforcement, and national security simultaneously.
At the national level, he proposed establishing bodies capable of coordinating the work of various agencies and considering the cumulative risks associated with the technology.
Additionally, Gates called for the formation of an international organization to address cross-border threats. He referenced existing regulatory frameworks in nuclear oversight, international aviation, and ozone layer protection as potential models.
He believes such a system will require cooperation between the United States and China. Countries housing leading AI developers and critical components of the technology supply chain should start to establish common standards before competition intensifies.
According to Gates, the shift towards an AI era represents one of the most significant and unstable periods in history. He cautioned that comparisons to previous technological revolutions are misleading due to the rapid spread of AI and its capacity to replace cognitive tasks performed by humans.
Among the primary threats he identified are job loss, cyberattacks, biological risks, and the impact of AI companions on children and social relationships.
Despite these concerns, Gates maintains a positive outlook on the technology. He continues to expect significant advancements in medicine, education, energy, agriculture, and scientific research. He stressed the importance of ensuring that the benefits of AI do not accrue solely to a small group of companies and capital owners.
It is worth noting that in December 2023, Gates suggested that AI has the potential to create a more equitable world and reduce the technology access gap between wealthy and poorer nations.