Analysts at Galaxy Research have concluded that the current market cycle for the leading cryptocurrency has not yet reached its bottom. According to a report, the asset's price could fall within the range of $40,000 to $46,000.
Source: Galaxy.The analysts noted that the four-year price movement rhythm, tied to halvings, remains intact. However, the amplitude of fluctuations is decreasing: each new peak is less "euphoric," and declines are shallower.
The peak recorded in October 2025 at $124,824 was described by researchers as the calmest in history. They attribute this to the dominance of institutional capital and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have smoothed volatility compared to previous retail rallies.
Where is the Bottom?
To determine a potential minimum, experts used the realized price (the average purchase cost of coins by all holders). This figure currently stands at around $53,000.
Source: Galaxy.In past cycles, Bitcoin's price typically dropped below this level by 25-44%. Currently, only four out of 13 key indicators of a bottom have signaled that a minimum has been reached.
Galaxy's scenarios are as follows:
- Base case: a drop to $40,000-$46,000;
- Pessimistic: in the event of severe panic, the price could fall to $30,000-$37,000;
- Optimistic: support around the cost basis of approximately $51,000-$54,000.
Timelines and Risks
Historically, the bottom forms 12-13 months after reaching an all-time high. This suggests that the window for establishing a minimum will open in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Researchers cautioned that these calculations are based on the purchase cost of coins. If a panic sell-off begins, this figure could decrease, potentially shifting support levels even lower.
As a reminder, analysts predicted in May that Bitcoin would exit its bearish phase.