Galaxy Predicts Bitcoin Could Drop to $40,000

Galaxy Research analysts have indicated that Bitcoin has yet to hit its market bottom, forecasting that the cryptocurrency's price may drop to between $40,000 and $46,000. The report highlights that the price movement pattern, linked to Bitcoin's halving events, remains consistent, but the volatility appears to be waning, with each new peak becoming less exuberant and declines less severe.

The analysts observed that the peak price of $124,824 reached in October 2025 was notably the most subdued in history, attributing this trend to increased institutional investment and the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have helped stabilize the market compared to previous retail-driven price surges.

Identifying the Bottom

In estimating a potential price floor, experts analyzed the realized price, which currently averages around $53,000 based on holders' purchase costs. Historically, Bitcoin's price has dipped between 25% and 44% below this level. At present, only four out of thirteen key indicators suggest that a bottom has been established.

• Base Case: A decline to the $40,000-$46,000 range.
• Pessimistic Scenario: In extreme market panic, prices could plummet to $30,000-$37,000.
• Optimistic Outlook: Support may hold around $51,000-$54,000.

Market Timing and Risks

Historically, Bitcoin’s market bottom tends to form 12-13 months following an all-time high, indicating that a potential minimum could emerge in the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts warned that these forecasts rely on current purchase costs, and a significant sell-off could alter support levels downward.

It is worth noting that analysts had previously predicted in May that Bitcoin would move out of its bearish trend.