Galaxy Digital has cut the CLARITY Act's 2026 passage odds to 50%, citing time constraints as the Senate approaches its August recess.
Key Updates on the CLARITY Act
Galaxy Digital has reduced its estimate regarding the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing by 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month and significantly lower than the 75% forecast from May. This adjustment comes as the Senate faces a tight schedule, with pressing legislative tasks before the August recess.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, shared this information in a tweet, highlighting that the diminished prospects are primarily due to timing constraints rather than opposition to the legislation’s content. The Senate is currently engaged with other legislative priorities, creating a backlog that includes various bills competing for attention.
Current Legislative Dynamics
Prediction markets also reflect the diminishing chances, with Polymarket estimating the likelihood of the act’s passage at nearly 49%, a slide from 74% a month prior. Thorn pointed out the lack of a consolidated Senate text and an established voting schedule could complicate the bill’s progress, especially with the summer break on the horizon.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, mentioned that while the situation appears discouraging, it primarily highlights the delays in timing. He noted that sub-50% probabilities have been indicated in prediction markets since May, underscoring a more cautious outlook than institutional estimates. Sun suggested that if the Senate can finalize the bill’s text and establish a voting schedule, the odds of passage could improve rapidly.
Implications for the Cryptocurrency Sector
The stakes are high for the cryptocurrency industry, as the CLARITY Act represents a potential framework for the regulation of digital assets, which is crucial for enhancing market confidence. Having passed the House in July 2025 and clearing the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote, the CLARITY Act requires broader support to overcome the legislative hurdles ahead. The bill has faced challenges from Democrats, particularly regarding the inclusion of ethical provisions related to crypto activities tied to former President Trump.
With the Senate's calendar packed, the future of the CLARITY Act hangs in the balance, amid ongoing discussions about other legislative priorities including the housing bill that has garnered obstacles due to Trump's demands. Senator Cynthia Lummis indicated a finalized text could be expected around July 4, which could influence the bill's trajectory.
