Summary
- Galaxy Digital has revised its estimate for the CLARITY Act's chances of passing in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month and 75% in May.
- The Senate's time to address the crypto market structure bill is dwindling due to other pressing legislation before the August recess.
- One analyst noted that the decrease in odds is more about timing delays than any rejection of the proposal itself.
Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act achieving passage in 2026 to a 50% likelihood, cautioning that the U.S. Senate is running short on time to advance the crypto market structure bill prior to its five-week break in August. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, expressed this in a tweet on Friday.
This reduction reflects a consistent downward trend. The odds were initially set at 75% in May, decreased to 60% on June 9, and have now settled at an even 50%. Prediction market Polymarket is even more pessimistic, estimating the chances of the act's passage in 2026 at nearly 49%, a drop from 74% just a month ago.
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 26, 2026
Thorn emphasized that the issue lies in timing rather than the content of the proposal. Currently, there is no consolidated Senate text or established floor schedule, and the clock is ticking down as lawmakers prepare for summer recess. Competition for Senate floor time has escalated, particularly after President Trump unexpectedly withheld support for a bipartisan housing bill until Congress passes the SAVE Act, which addresses proof-of-citizenship for elections. Other bills concerning surveillance and defense are also competing for legislative attention.
Despite the declining odds, Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, suggested this might not be entirely negative news. "The decrease in the likelihood of passage is primarily about time delays, not a rejection of the bill's content," he remarked to Decrypt, noting that prediction markets have reflected sub-50% probabilities since May, which is "somewhat more pessimistic than institutional predictions."
Sun explained that the ongoing focus on the housing bill, the SAVE Act, and other legislative priorities is dominating the Senate schedule. Without a clear path for a vote prior to the recess, he cautioned that the bill could become entangled in a more complex mid-term election landscape. However, he noted that if a finalized text is made available in July and Senate leaders outline a voting schedule, the odds could rebound swiftly.
The implications for the cryptocurrency sector are significant, particularly in a trading environment marked by ETF outflows and a declining risk appetite. The CLARITY Act is viewed as one of the few U.S. policy developments that could potentially enhance market sentiment.
This legislation aims to create the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., assigning oversight responsibilities between the CFTC and SEC. The bill cleared the House in July 2025 and received approval from the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote in May, but only two Democrats supported it—far short of the seven votes needed to meet the 60-vote threshold. Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, are advocating for ethics provisions aimed at Trump's crypto ventures, while banks and law enforcement groups have raised concerns about stablecoin yields and potential illicit finance loopholes.
For the time being, the bill's future is caught up in a busy legislative calendar that is also delaying other bills, including the housing legislation that Trump is blocking due to his election-related demands. Senator Cynthia Lummis indicated to Fox Business last Wednesday that a finalized CLARITY text could be expected around July 4.