In the current market cycle, Bitcoin's decline has been significantly less severe than in previous periods. This is reported by Cointelegraph citing Fidelity Digital Assets.
Analyst Zach Wainright noted that in the past, after reaching all-time highs (ATH), the price of the leading cryptocurrency would plummet by 80-90%. Now, the downturns following peaks are not as deep, and this trend is likely to continue.
Bitcoin price drawdowns after reaching ATH. Source: BitBo.
Changing Market Dynamics
According to Wainright, when assessing price movements relative to previous peaks, there is a noticeable decrease in the returns on investments in digital gold.
“With each new cycle, the growth becomes less impulsive. The risk of a deep drop in 2026 has also decreased,” the expert emphasized.
On February 6, Bitcoin reached a potential bottom for the current cycle around $60,000. This is 52% below the historical high near $126,000 recorded on October 6. Currently, the asset is trading 45% lower than its peak values from six months ago.
During the previous bear market, the decline was more pronounced, with prices dropping 77% from the 2021 peak ($69,000) to below $16,000 in November 2022.
Is the Bottom Already in Late September?
A less severe downturn indicates market maturity, reduced volatility, and increased confidence from institutional investors, said LVRG Research Director Nick Rak in a comment to the publication.
“Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset into a more stable store of value. In the long run, this paves the way for its widespread adoption,” he added.
Alphractal founder Joao Vedson noted that the local peak for Bitcoin was reached on the 534th day after the halving—much sooner than in the previous cycle.
“The fading patterns” suggest that a market bottom may form between the 912th and 922nd day after the reduction in mining rewards. According to the expert's estimates, this phase is expected to occur in late September or early October 2026.
Technical Picture
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading below the 50- and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which serve as indicators of the long-term trend.
The daily BTC/USD chart from Coinbase. Source: TradingView.
Meanwhile, the asset is consolidating around $69,000—above the 200-week EMA, which has historically acted as a significant dynamic support zone during corrections in bear market phases.
It’s worth noting that amid Ethereum's market weakness, it has outperformed Bitcoin in price dynamics.